Food, water, energy crises, human tragedies in 2023-2025 detailed in sweeping analysis

Fuelled by climate change and relentless pressure on land and water resources, some of the most widespread and damaging drought events in recorded history have taken place since 2023, according to a UN-backed report launched today.

Prepared by the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), with support from the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA), the report, “Drought Hotspots Around the World 2023-2025,” available at https://bit.ly/4kkHApR, provides a comprehensive account of how droughts compound poverty, hunger, energy insecurity, and ecosystem collapse.

“It is here, escalating, and demands urgent global cooperation. When energy, food, and water all go at once, societies start to unravel. That’s the new normal we need to be ready for.”

“This is not a dry spell,” says Dr. Mark Svoboda, report co-author and NDMC Director. “This is a slow-moving global catastrophe, the worst I’ve ever seen. This report underscores the need for systematic monitoring of how drought affects lives, livelihoods, and the health of the ecosystems that we all depend on.”

“The Mediterranean countries represent canaries in the coal mine for all modern economies,” he adds. “The struggles experienced by Spain, Morocco and Türkiye to secure water, food, and energy under persistent drought offer a preview of water futures under unchecked global warming. No country, regardless of wealth or capacity, can afford to be complacent.”

A wide-ranging crisis

The new report synthesizes information from hundreds of government, scientific and media sources to highlight impacts within the most acute drought hotspots in Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, Namibia), the Mediterranean (Spain, Morocco, Türkiye), Latin America (Panama, Amazon Basin), Southeast Asia, and beyond.

Africa: 

• Over 90 million people across Eastern and Southern Africa face acute hunger. Some areas have been enduring their worst ever recorded drought.
• Southern Africa, already drought-prone, was devastated with roughly 1/6th of the population (68 million) needing food aid in August 2024. 
• In Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi, maize and wheat crops have failed repeatedly.  In Zimbabwe alone, the 2024 corn crop was down 70% year on year, and maize prices doubled while 9,000 cattle died of thirst and starvation. 
• In Somalia, the government estimated 43,000 people died in 2022 alone due to drought-linked hunger. As of early 2025, 4.4 million people – a quarter of the population – face crisis-level food insecurity, including 784,000 expected to reach emergency levels.
• Zambia suffered one of the world’s worst energy crises as the Zambezi River in April 2024 plummeted to 20% of its long-term average. The country’s largest hydroelectric plant, the Kariba Dam, fell to 7% generation capacity, causing blackouts of up to 21 hours per day and shuttering hospitals, bakeries, and factories.

Mediterranean:

• Spain: Water shortages hit agriculture, tourism, and domestic supply. By September 2023, two years of drought and record heat caused a 50% drop in Spain’s olive crop, causing its olive oil prices to double across the country. 
• Morocco: The sheep population was 38% smaller in 2025 relative to 2016, prompting a royal plea to cancel traditional Eid sacrifices.
• Türkiye: Drought accelerated groundwater depletion, triggering sinkholes that present hazards to communities and their infrastructure while permanently reducing aquifer storage capacity.

Latin America

• Amazon Basin: Record-low river levels in 2023 and 2024 led to mass deaths of fish and endangered dolphins, and disrupted drinking water and transport for hundreds of thousands. As deforestation and fires intensify, the Amazon risks transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon source.
• Panama Canal: Water levels dropped so low that transits were slashed by over one-third (from 38 to 24 ships daily between October 2023 and January 2024), causing major global trade disruptions. Facing multi-week delays, many ships were rerouted to longer, costlier paths via the Suez Canal or South Africa’s infamous Cape of Good Hope. Among the knock-on effects, U.S. soybean exports slowed, and UK grocery stores reported shortages and rising prices of fruits and vegetables.

Southeast Asia

• Drought disrupted production and supply chains of key crops such as rice, coffee, and sugar. In 2023-2024, dry conditions in Thailand and India, for example, triggered shortages leading to a 8.9% increase in the price of sugar and sweets in the US.

“A Perfect Storm” of El Niño and climate change

The 2023–2024 El Niño event amplified already harsh climate change impacts, triggering dry conditions across major agricultural and ecological zones. Drought’s impacts hit hardest in climate hotspots, regions already suffering from warming trends, population pressures, and fragile infrastructure.

“This was a perfect storm,” says report co-author Dr. Kelly Helm Smith, NDMC Assistant Director and drought impacts researcher. “El Niño added fuel to the fire of climate change, compounding the effects for many vulnerable societies and ecosystems past their limits.”

Co-author Dr. Cody Knutson, who oversees NDMC drought planning research, underlined a recent OECD estimate that a drought episode today carries an economic cost at least twice as high as in 2000, with a 35% to 110% increase projected by 2035.

“Ripple effects can turn regional droughts into global economic shocks,” she adds. “No country is immune when critical water-dependent systems start to collapse.”

Women, children among the most affected

Most vulnerable to the effects of drought: Women, children, the elderly, pastoralists, subsistence farmers, and people with chronic illness.  Health risks include cholera outbreaks, acute malnutrition, dehydration, and exposure to polluted water.

The report highlights in particular the disproportionate toll on women and children.

In Eastern Africa, forced child marriages more than doubled as families sought dowries to survive. Though outlawed in Ethiopia, child marriages more than doubled in frequency in the four regions hit hardest by the drought. Young girls who marry can bring their family income in the form of a dowry while lessening the financial burden of providing food and other necessities.

In Zimbabwe, entire school districts saw mass dropouts due to hunger, costs, and sanitation issues for girls.

In the Amazon, the drought upended life for remote Indigenous and rural communities. In some areas, the Amazon River fell to its lowest level ever recorded, leaving residents stranded – including women giving birth – and entire towns without potable water.

“The coping mechanisms we saw during this drought grew  increasingly desperate,” says lead author Paula Guastello, NDMC drought impacts researcher. “Girls pulled from school and forced into marriage, hospitals going dark, and families digging holes in dry riverbeds just to find contaminated water — these are signs of severe crisis.”

“As droughts intensify, it is critical that we work together on a global scale to protect the most vulnerable people and ecosystems and re-evaluate whether our current water use practices are sustainable in today’s changing world,” Guastello says.

Says Deputy Executive Secretary of UNCCD Andrea Meza: “The report shows the deep and widespread impacts of drought in an interconnected world: from its rippling effects on price of basic commodities like rice, sugar and oil from Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean; to disruptions in access to drinking water and food in the Amazon due to low river levels, to tens of millions affected by malnutrition and displacement across Africa.”

“The evidence is clear”, adds Meza. “We must urgently invest in sustainable land and water management, land-use planning and integrated public policies to build our  resilience to drought or face increasingly harsh consequences.”

Public policies and international cooperation frameworks must urgently prioritize drought resilience for the sake of societies and economies.”

Wildlife killed en masse

• Beyond the 200 endangered river dolphins and thousands of fish lost to the Amazon drought, impacts on wildlife include:
• 100 elephants died in Zimbabwe’s Hwange Park due to starvation and limited access to water between August and December 2023.
• Hippos were stranded in dry riverbeds in Botswana in 2024.
• Some countries last year culled wild animals (e.g., 200 elephants in Zimbabwe and Namibia) to feed rural communities and protect ecosystems from overgrazing.

Lessons and recommendations

The report calls for urgent investments in drought preparedness, including:

• Stronger early warning systems and real-time drought and drought impact monitoring, including conditions contributing to food and water insecurity.
• Nature-based solutions such as watershed restoration and indigenous crop use.
• Resilient infrastructure, including off-grid energy and alternative water supply technologies.
• Gender-responsive adaptation, ensuring that women and girls are not further marginalized.
• Global cooperation, especially in protecting transboundary river basins and trade routes.

“Drought is not just a weather event – it can be a social, economic, and environmental emergency,” says Dr. Smith. “The question is not whether this will happen again, but whether we will be better prepared next time.”

“Drought has a disproportionate effect on those with fewest resources. We can act now to reduce the effects of future droughts by working to ensure that everyone has access to food, water, education, health care and economic opportunity.”

“The nations of the world have the resources and the knowledge to prevent a lot of suffering,” Dr. Smith adds. “The question is, do we have the will?”

* * * * *

By the Numbers:

• 68 million: People needing food aid in Southern Africa
• 23 million: People facing acute hunger in Eastern Africa
• 70%: Maize crop lost in Zimbabwe (2024)
• Up to 21 hours/day: Power outages in Zambia
• 200+: Endangered river dolphins killed by heat in the Amazon (Sept 2023)
• 38: Daily Panama Canal transits before drought; 24 during drought
• 50%: Olive oil production drop in Spain
• 1 million+: People in Somalia displaced due to drought (2022); 4.4 million at crisis-level hunger (early 2025); 1.7 million children suffering acute malnutrition (Apr–Jun 2025)
• 70%: Victoria Falls water level drop compared with 2023 (Zambia side, 2024)
• 100+: Drought-related elephant deaths in Zimbabwe’s Hwange National Park
• 1,600+: Estimated number of sinkholes in Türkiye due to groundwater depletion
• Nearly doubled: Price increase of maize in Zambia
• €22.84 billion: Spain’s investment in irrigation and water infrastructure

* * * * *

About the report

The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification sought to document drought’s recent impacts comprehensively to inform global policy and better prepare societies for future droughts.  The report draws on over 250 peer-reviewed studies, official data sources, and news reports across more than a dozen countries and regions.

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News release in full, click here

Coverage highlights

Recent droughts are ‘slow-moving global catastrophe’ – UN report, BBC, United Kingdom (144,490,956)

Droughts worldwide pushing tens of millions towards starvation, says report, The Guardian, United Kingdom (80,836,345)

Earth has seen some of its worst droughts ever recorded in last two years, report finds
CBS News, United States (online reach 43,927,397)

Seca é ‘catástrofe global em câmera lenta’, alerta relatório da ONU, G1, Brazil (62,344,597)

Drought claims victims and fuels social injustices: the UN warns, La Repubblica, Italy (18,488,679)

UN agency report: The world faces severe drought challenges, news.sina.com.cn / 新浪新闻, China (17,922,693)

UN-backed report warns of escalating global drought risk, calls for urgent action, 新华网 (Xinhua), China (2,479,924)

El mapa mundial de la sequía sitúa a España en primera línea de una “catástrofe global”, El Mundo, Spain (22,880,882)

„Eine langsam voranschreitende globale Katastrophe: Wo Wassermangel Menschen am härtesten trifft, Der Tagesspiegel, Germany (9,207,919)

UN schlagen Alarm: Dürre-Bericht sieht fortschreitende globale Katastrophe, dpa via ZEIT online, Germany (4,196,119)

Eventos recordes de seca ocorreram nos últimos dois anos, alerta ONU, Folha de S. Paulo, Brazil (8,765,184)

Record temperatures, failed crops, and power outages: the triple impact of climate change-induced droughts, Infobae, Argentina (97,611,329)

UN-backed report warns of escalating global drought risk, calls for urgent action, IANS newswire via ProKerala.com, India (10,017,911)

How climate change-fuelled drought hit India’s sugar production, India Today, India (39,529,942)

Global drought exacerbates famine and displaces millions, Al Jazeera Arabic Online, Qatar (8,817,968)

Recent droughts are “global catastrophe in slow motion”, SAPO, Portugal (6,257,857)

Climate change is causing increasingly devastating droughts, Presse Canadienne newswire via MSN Canada, Canada (3,375,680)

Full coverage summary, click here

Aridity: The ‘existential crisis’ redefining life on Earth; Five billion people could be affected by 2100

Even as dramatic water-related disasters such as floods and storms intensified in some parts of the world, more than three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in recent decades, UN scientists warned today in a stark new analysis.

Some 77.6% of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period, according to the landmark report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

Over the same period, drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km2 – an area nearly a third larger than India, the world’s 7th largest country – and now cover 40.6% of all land on Earth (excluding Antarctica).

In recent decades some 7.6% of global lands – an area larger than Canada – were pushed across aridity thresholds (i.e. from non-drylands to drylands, or from less arid dryland classes to more arid classes).

Most of these areas have transitioned from humid landscapes to drylands, with dire implications for agriculture, ecosystems, and the people living there. 

And the research warns that, if the world fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, another 3% of the world’s humid areas will become drylands by the end of this century. 

In high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia.

The report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, was launched at the 16th conference of UNCCD’s nearly 200 Parties in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (COP16), the largest UN land conference to date, and the first UNCCD COP to be held in the Middle East, a region profoundly affected by impacts from aridity.

“This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends,” says Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary. “For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.” 

“Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation,” he adds. “Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost.  The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.”

The report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use changes warm the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rainfall, evaporation and plant life, creating the conditions that increase aridity.

Global aridity index (AI) data track these conditions and reveal widespread change over the decades. 

Aridification hotspots

Areas particularly hard-hit by the drying trend include almost all of Europe (95.9% of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (notably eastern Asia), and central Africa.

• Parts of the Western United States and Brazil: Significant drying trends, with water scarcity and wildfires becoming perennial hazards.
• Mediterranean and Southern Europe: Once considered agricultural breadbaskets, these areas face a stark future as semi-arid conditions expand.
• Central Africa and parts of Asia: Biologically megadiverse areas are experiencing ecosystem degradation and desertification, endangering countless species.

By contrast, less than a quarter of the planet’s land (22.4%) experienced wetter conditions, with areas in the central United States, Angola’s Atlantic coast, and parts of Southeast Asia showing some gains in moisture.

The overarching trend, however, is clear: drylands are expanding, pushing ecosystems and societies to suffer from aridity’s life-threatening impacts.

The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, and China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.

For the 2.3 billion people – well over 25% of the world’s population – living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, represents a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability. 

And as the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by the century’s end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources, and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.

Forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide. From the Middle East to Africa and South Asia, millions are already on the move—a trend set to intensify in coming decades.

Aridity’s devastating impact

The effects of rising aridity are cascading and multifaceted, touching nearly every aspect of life and society, the report says.

It warns that one fifth of all land could experience abrupt ecosystem transformations from rising aridity by the end of the century, causing dramatic shifts (such as forests becoming grasslands and other changes) and leading to extinctions among many of the world’s plants, animals and other life.

• Aridity is considered the world’s largest single driver behind the degradation of agricultural systems, affecting 40% of Earth’s arable lands

• Rising aridity has been blamed for a 12% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) recorded for African countries between 1990–2015

• More than two thirds of all land on the planet (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) is projected to store less water by the end of the century, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise even modestly

• Aridity is considered one of the world’s five most important causes of land degradation (along with land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss and vegetation degradation)

• Rising aridity in the Middle East has been linked to the region’s more frequent and larger sand and dust storms

• Increasing aridity is expected to play a role in larger and more intense wildfires in the climate-altered future—not least because of its impacts on tree deaths in semi-arid forests and the consequent growing availability of dry biomass for burning

• Rising aridity’s impacts on poverty, water scarcity, land degradation and insufficient food production have been linked to increasing rates of sickness and death globally —especially among children and women

• Rising aridity and drought play a key role in increasing human migration around the world—particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and southern Asia. 

Report marks a turning point

For years, documenting the rise of aridity proved a challenge, the report states. Its long-term nature and the intricate interplay of factors such as rainfall, evaporation, and plant transpiration made analysis difficult. Early studies produced conflicting results, often muddied by scientific caution.

The new report marks a turning point, leveraging advanced climate models and standardized methodologies to deliver a definitive assessment of global drying trends, confirming the inexorable rise of aridity, while providing critical insights into its underlying drivers and potential future trajectory.

Recommendations

The report offers a comprehensive roadmap for tackling aridity, emphasizing both mitigation and adaptation. Among its recommendations:

• Strengthen aridity monitoring
  Integrate aridity metrics into existing drought monitoring systems. This approach would enable early detection of changes and help guide interventions before conditions worsen. Platforms like the new Aridity Visual Information Tool provide policymakers and researchers with valuable data, allowing for early warnings and timely interventions. Standardized assessments can enhance global cooperation and inform local adaptation strategies.
   
• Improve land use practices
  Incentivizing sustainable land use systems can mitigate the impacts of rising aridity, particularly in vulnerable regions. Innovative, holistic, sustainable approaches to land management are the focus of another new UNCCD SPI report, Sustainable Land Use Systems: The path to collectively achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, available at https://bit.ly/3ZwkLZ3. It considers how land-use at one location affect others elsewhere, makes resilience to climate change or other shocks a priority, and encourages participation and buy-in by Indigenous and local communities as well as all levels of government. Projects like the Great Green Wall—a land restoration initiative spanning Africa—demonstrate the potential for large-scale, holistic efforts to combat aridity and restore ecosystems, while creating jobs and stabilizing economies.
   
• Invest in water efficiency
  Technologies such as rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, and wastewater recycling offer practical solutions for managing scarce water resources in dry regions.
   
• Build resilience in vulnerable communities
  Local knowledge, capacity building, social justice and holistic thinking  are vital to resilience. Sustainable land use systems encourage decision makers to apply responsible governance, protect human rights (including secure land access) and ensure accountability and transparency. Capacity-building programmes, financial support, education programmes, climate information services and community-driven initiatives empower those most affected by aridity to adapt to changing conditions. Farmers switching to drought-resistant crops or pastoralists adopting more arid-tolerant livestock exemplify incremental adaptation.
   
• Develop international frameworks and cooperation
  The UNCCD’s Land Degradation Neutrality framework provides a model for aligning national policies with international goals, ensuring a unified response to the crisis. National Adaptation Plans must incorporate aridity alongside drought planning to create cohesive strategies that address water and land management challenges. Cross-sectoral collaboration at the global level, facilitated by frameworks like the UNCCD, is essential for scaling solutions.

Comments

“For decades, the world’s scientists have signalled that our growing greenhouse gas emissions are behind global warming. Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, too—with potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water that could push people and nature even closer to disastrous tipping points.  As large tracts of the world’s land become more arid, the consequences of inaction grow increasingly dire and adaptation is no longer optional—it is imperative.”

• UNCCD Chief Scientist Barron Orr

“Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline. Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge. The question is not whether we have the tools to respond—it is whether we have the will to act.”

• Nichole Barger, Chair, UNCCD Science-Policy Interface

The report’s clarity is a wake-up call for policymakers: tackling aridity demands more than just science—it requires a diversity of perspectives and knowledge systems. By weaving Indigenous and local knowledge with cutting-edge data, we can craft stronger, smarter strategies to slow aridity’s advance, mitigate its impacts and thrive in a drying world.”

• Sergio Vicente-Serrano, co-lead author of the report and an aridity expert with Spain’s Pyrenean Institute of Ecology

“This report underscores the critical need to address aridity as a defining global challenge of our time. By uniting diverse expertise and leveraging breakthrough technologies, we are not just measuring change—we are crafting a roadmap for resilience. Tackling aridity demands a collaborative vision that integrates innovation, adaptive solutions, and a commitment to securing a sustainable future for all.”

• Narcisa Pricope, co-lead author, professor of geosciences and associate vice president for research at Mississippi State University, USA.

“The timeliness of this report cannot be overstated.  Rising aridity will reshape the global landscape, challenging traditional ways of life and forcing societies to reimagine their relationship with land and water.  As with climate change and biodiversity loss, addressing aridity requires coordinated international action and an unwavering commitment to sustainable development.”

• Andrea Toreti, co-lead author and senior scientist, European Commission’s Joint Research Centre

By the Numbers: 

Key global trends / projections

1. 77.6%: Proportion of Earth’s land that experienced drier climates from 1990–2020 compared to the previous 30 years.
2. 40.6%: Global land mass (excluding Antarctica) classified as drylands, up from 37.5% over the last 30 years.
3. 4.3 million km²: Humid lands transformed into drylands in the last three decades, an area one-third larger than India
4. 40%: Global arable land affected by aridity—the leading driver of agricultural degradation.
5. 30.9%: Global population living in drylands in 2020, up from 22.5% in 1990
6. 2.3 billion: People living in drylands in 2020, a doubling from 1990, projected to more than double again by 2100 under a worst-case climate change scenario.
7. 1.35 billion: Dryland inhabitants in Asia—more than half the global total.
8. 620 million: Dryland inhabitants in Africa—nearly half of the continent’s population.
9. 9.1%: Portion of Earth’s land classified as hyperarid, including the Atacama (Chile), Sahara (Africa), Namib (Africa), and Gobi (China/Mongolia) deserts.
10. 23%: Increase in global land at “moderate” to “very high” desertification risk by 2100 under the worst-case emissions scenario
    1. +8% at “very high” risk.
    2. +5% at “high” risk.
    3. +10% at “moderate” risk.

Environmental degradation

• 5: Key drivers of land degradation: Rising aridity, land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss, and vegetation degradation
• 20%: Global land at risk of abrupt ecosystem transformations by 2100 due to rising aridity
• 55%: Species (mammals, reptiles, fish, amphibians, and birds) at risk of habitat loss from aridity. Hotspots: (Arid regions): West Africa, Western Australia, Iberian Peninsula; (Humid regions): Southern Mexico, northern Amazon rainforest

Economics

• 12%: African GDP decline attributed to aridity, 1990–2015
• 16% / 6.7%: Projected GDP losses in Africa / Asia by 2079 under a moderate emissions scenario
• 20M tons maize, 21M tons wheat, 19M tons rice: Expected losses in global crop yields by 2040 due to expanding aridity
• 50%: Projected drop in maize yields in Kenya by 2050 under a high emissions scenario

Water 

• 90%: Rainfall in drylands that evaporates back into the atmosphere, leaving 10% for plant growth
• 67%: Global land expected to store less water by 2100, even under moderate emission scenarios
• 75%: Decline in water availability in the Middle East and North Africa since the 1950s
• 40%: Predicted Andean runoff decline by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, threatening water supplies in South America

Health

• 55%: Increase in severe child stunting in sub-Saharan Africa under a medium emissions scenario due to combined effects of aridity and climate warming
• Up to 12.5%: Estimated rise in mortality risks during sand and dust storms in China, 2013–2018
• 57% / 38%: Increases in fine and coarse atmospheric dust levels, respectively, in the southwestern U.S. by 2100 under worst case climate scenarios
• 220%: Projected increase in premature deaths due to airborne dust in the southwestern United States by 2100 under the high-emissions scenario
• 160%: Expected rise in hospitalizations linked to airborne dust in the same region

Wildfires and Forests

• 74%: Expected increase in wildfire-burned areas in California by 2100 under high emission scenarios
• 40: Additional annual high fire danger days in Greece by 2100 compared to late 20th century levels

Notes to editors:

Aridity versus drought

Highly arid regions are places in which a persistent, long-term climatic condition lacks available moisture to support most forms of life and atmospheric evaporative demand significantly exceeds rainfall. 

Drought, on the other hand, is an anomalous, shorter-term period of water shortage affecting ecosystems and people and often attributed to low precipitation, high temperatures, low air humidity and/or anomalies in wind. 

While drought is part of natural climate variability and can occur in almost any climatic regime, aridity is a stable condition for which changes occur over extremely long-time scales under significant forcing.

Coverage highlights

Three-Quarters of Earth’s Land Got Drier in Recent Decades, U.N. Says — The New York Times (United States, 184,546,007)

Drylands now make up 40% of land on Earth, excluding Antarctica, study says — The Guardian (United Kingdom, 91,177,292)

More than 5 billion people will live in arid areas by 2100, warns UN — EFE via Infobae (Argentina, 95,236,694)

Three Quarters Of Earth’s Landmass Is Drying Out, Creating “Existential Peril” — IFL Science via MSN.com (United States, 127,645,172)

An existential threat affecting billions’: Three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in last 3 decades — Live Science via MSN.com (United States, 127,645,172)

Earth’s lands are drying out. Nations are trying to address it in talks this week — Associated Press (United States, 77,170,183)

Almost all of earth became permanently drier since 1990: Report — The Hill via MSN.com (United States, 127,645,172)

Aridity extends over three-quarters of the Earth, and the Mediterranean is one of the most affected areas — El Mondo via MSN.com (United States, 127,645,172)

The drying of the land continues to spread as flood damage intensifies — Gizmodo via Yahoo!ニュース Japan (Japan, 140,575,859)

UN warns of an impending ‘existential crisis’ that destroys crops — Daily Mail (United Kingdom, 55,445,356)

Up to 5 billion people living in arid lands: new UN report projects impact of climate change on soil — G1 (Brazil, 62,846,751)

Scientists reveal existential crisis: 77% of the land is heading towards long-term drought — NetEase News / 网易新闻 (China, 50,418,699)

Drought, degrading land take centrestage at UN talks in Riyadh — The Hindu (India, 31,028,125)

Three-Quarters of the Earth Has Gotten Permanently Drier — TIME via MSN.com (United States, 127,645,172)

Drying of the Earth threatens the survival of humans, animals and plants… UNCCD report — Naver (South Korea, 54,124,792)

Coverge summary in full, click here

News release in full, click here

Land degradation undermining Earth’s capacity to sustain humanity; Failure to reverse it will pose challenges for generations; 7 of 9 planetary boundaries are negatively impacted by unsustainable land use, highlighting land’s central role in Earth systems

A major new scientific report charts an urgent course correction for how the world grows food and uses land in order to avoid irretrievably compromising Earth’s capacity to support human and environmental wellbeing.   

Produced under the leadership of Prof. Dr. Johan Rockström at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in collaboration with the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the report is launched as nearly 200 UNCCD member states kick off their COP 16 summit on Monday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 

Land is the foundation of Earth’s stability, regulating climate, preserving biodiversity and maintaining freshwater systems. It provides life-giving resources including food, water and raw materials, says the report, Stepping back from the precipice: Transforming land management to stay within planetary boundaries, which draws on roughly 350 information sources(*) to examine land degradation and opportunities to act from a planetary boundaries perspective.

Deforestation, urbanization and unsustainable farming, however, are causing global land degradation at an unprecedented scale, threatening not only different Earth system components but human survival itself.

Moreover, the deterioration of forests and soils undermines Earth’s capacity to cope with the climate and biodiversity crises, which in turn accelerate land degradation in a vicious, downward cycle of impacts.

“If we fail to acknowledge the pivotal role of land and take appropriate action, the consequences will ripple through every aspect of life and extend well into the future, intensifying difficulties for future generations,” said UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw. 

Already today, land degradation disrupts food security, drives migration, and fuels conflicts.

The global area impacted by land degradation – approx. 15 million km², more than the entire continent of Antarctica or nearly the size of Russia  – is expanding each year by about a million square km.

Planetary boundaries

The report, available for download post-embargo at www.unccd.int and https://bit.ly/3V5SaY7, situates both problems and potential solutions related to land use within the scientific framework of the planetary boundaries, which has rapidly gained policy relevance since its unveiling 15 years ago. 

The planetary boundaries define nine critical thresholds essential for maintaining Earth’s stability. How humanity uses or abuses land directly impacts seven of these, including climate change, species loss and ecosystem viability, freshwater systems, and the circulation of naturally occurring elements nitrogen and phosphorus. Change in land use is also a planetary boundary.   

Alarmingly, six boundaries have already been breached to date, and two more are close to their thresholds: ocean acidification and the concentration of aerosols in the atmosphere. Only stratospheric ozone – the object of a 1989 treaty to reduce ozone-depleting chemicals – is firmly within its “safe operating space”. 

“The aim of the planetary boundaries framework is to provide a measure for achieving human wellbeing within Earth’s ecological limits,” said Johan Rockström, lead author of the seminal study introducing the concept in 2009. 

“We stand at a precipice and must decide whether to step back and take transformative action, or continue on a path of irreversible environmental change,” he adds.

The benchmark for land use, for example, is the extent of the world’s forests before significant human impact. Anything above 75% keeps us within safe bounds, but forest cover has already been reduced to only 60% of its original area, according to the most recent update of the planetary boundaries framework by Katherine Richardson and colleagues.

Until recently, land ecosystems absorbed nearly one third of human-caused CO₂ pollution, even as those emissions increased by half.  

Over the last decade, however, deforestation and climate change have reduced by 20% the capacity of trees and soil to absorb excess CO₂.

Unsustainable agricultural practices

Conventional agriculture is the leading culprit of land degradation, contributing to deforestation, soil erosion and pollution. Unsustainable irrigation practices deplete freshwater resources, while excessive use of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers destabilize ecosystems.

Degraded soils lower crop yields and nutritional quality, directly impacting the livelihoods of vulnerable populations. Secondary effects include greater dependency on chemical inputs and increased land conversion for farming.

The infamous Dust Bowl of the 1930s resulted from large-scale land-use changes and inadequate soil conservation. 

Land degradation hotspots today stem from intensive agricultural production and high irrigation demands, particularly in dry regions such as South Asia, northern China, the US High Plains, California, and the Mediterranean.

Meanwhile, climate change – which has long since breached its own planetary boundary – accelerates land degradation through extreme weather events, prolonged droughts, and intensified floods. Melting mountain glaciers and altered water cycles heighten vulnerabilities, especially in arid regions.

Rapid urbanization intensifies these challenges, contributing to habitat destruction, pollution, and biodiversity loss.

The impacts of land degradation hit tropical and low-income countries disproportionately, both because they have less resilience and because impacts are concentrated in tropical and arid regions. Women, youth, Indigenous peoples, and local communities also bear the brunt of environmental decline. Women face increased workloads and health risks, while children suffer from malnutrition and educational setbacks.

Weak governance and corruption exacerbate these challenges. Corruption fosters illegal deforestation and resource exploitation, perpetuating cycles of degradation and inequality.

According to the Prindex initiative, nearly one billion people lack secure land tenure, with the highest concentration in north Africa (28%), sub-Saharan Africa (26%), as well as South and Southeast Asia. The fear of losing one’s home or land undermines efforts to promote sustainable practices. 

Agricultural subsidies often incentivize harmful practices, fueling overuse of water and biogeochemical imbalances. Aligning these subsidies with sustainability goals is critical for effective land management.

From 2013 to 2018, more than half-a-trillion dollars were spent on such subsidies across 88 countries, a report by FAO, UNDP and UNEP found in 2021.  Nearly 90% went to inefficient, unfair practices that harmed the environment, according to that report. 

Transformative action

Transformative action to combat land degradation is needed to ensure a return to the safe operating space for the land-based planetary boundaries. Just as the planetary boundaries are interconnected, so must be the actions to prevent or slow their transgression.

Principles of fairness and justice are key when designing and implementing transformative actions to stop land degradation, ensuring that benefits and burdens are equitably distributed.

Agriculture reform, soil protection, water resource management, digital solutions, sustainable or “green” supply chains, equitable land governance along with the protection and restoration of forests, grasslands, savannas and peatlands are crucial for halting and reversing land and soil degradation.

Regenerative agriculture is primarily defined by its outcomes, including improved soil health, carbon sequestration and biodiversity enhancement. Agroecology emphasises holistic land management, including the integration of forestry, crops and livestock management. 

Woodland regeneration, no-till farming, nutrient management, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, intercropping, organic fertiliser, improved use of compost and biochar – can all enhance soil carbon and boost yields.

Savannas are under severe threat from human-induced land degradation, yet are essential for ecological and human wellbeing. A major store of biodiversity and carbon, they cover 20% of the Earth’s land surface but are increasingly being lost to cropland expansion and misguided afforestation. 

The current rate of groundwater extraction exceeds replenishment in 47% of global aquifers, so more efficient irrigation is crucial to reduce agricultural freshwater use. 

Globally, the water sector must continue to shift from “grey” infrastructure (dams, reservoirs, channels, treatment plants) to “green” (reforestation, floodplain restoration, forest conservation or recharging aquifers).

More efficient delivery of chemical fertilizer is likewise essential: currently, only 46% of nitrogen and 66% of phosphorus applied as fertilizer is taken up by crops. The rest runs off into freshwater bodies, and coastal areas with dire consequences for the environment.

New technologies

New technologies coupled with big data and artificial intelligence have made possible innovations such as precision farming, remote sensing and drones that detect and combat land degradation in real time. Benefits likewise accrue from the precise application of water, nutrients and pesticides, along with early pest and disease detection.

Plantix, a free app available in 18 languages, can detect nearly 700 pests and diseases on more than 80 different crops. Improved solar cookstoves can provide households with additional income sources and improve livelihoods, while reducing reliance on forest resources.

Regulatory action, stronger land governance, formalisation of land tenure and better corporate transparency on environmental impacts are all needed as well. 

Numerous multilateral agreements on land-system change exist but have largely failed to deliver. The Glasgow Declaration to halt deforestation and land degradation by 2030 was signed by 145 countries at the Glasgow climate summit in 2021, but deforestation has increased since then. 

Protecting intact peatlands and rewetting 60% of those already degraded could transform such ecosystems into a net sink, or sponge, of greenhouse gases by the end of the century. Currently, damaged peatlands account for 4% to 5% of global GHG emissions, according to the IUCN.

(*) Please see report for complete references

By the Numbers: Recent research highlights 

• 7 out of 9: Planetary boundaries impacted by land use, underscoring its central role in Earth systems.
• 60%: Remaining global forest cover—well below the safe boundary of 75%.
• 15 million km²: Degraded land area, more than the size of Antarctica, expanding by 1 million km² annually.
• 20%: Earth’s land surface covered by savannas, now under threat from cropland expansion and ill-conceived afforestation.
• 46%: Global land area classified as drylands, home to a third of humanity; 75% of Africa is dryland.
• 90%: Share of recent deforestation directly caused by agriculture—dominated by expanding cropland in Africa/Asia, livestock grazing in South America.
• 80%: Agriculture’s contribution to global deforestation; 70% of freshwater use.
• 23%: Greenhouse gas emissions stemming from agriculture, forestry, and land use.
• 50% vs. 6%: Share of agricultural emissions from deforestation in lower-income vs. higher-income countries.
• 46% / 66%: Fertilizer efficiency for nitrogen and phosphorus; the rest runs off with dire consequences.
• 2,700+: National policies addressing nitrogen pollution while phosphorus is largely overlooked.
• 10%: World’s arable land planted with genetically modified crops by 2018—dominated by soy (78%), cotton (76%), and maize (30%).
• 11,700 years: Length of the Holocene period, during which Earth’s temperature varied within a narrow 0.5°C range—until a 1.3°C rise since the mid-19th century.
• 1/3: Anthropogenic CO2 absorbed by land ecosystems annually.
• 25%: Share of global biodiversity found in soil.
• 20%: Decline in trees’ and soil’s CO2 absorption capacity since 2015 attributed to climate change.
• 3%: Freshwater share of Earth’s water, mostly locked in ice caps and groundwater.
• 50%+: World’s major rivers disrupted by dam construction.
• 47%: Aquifers being depleted faster than they replenish.
• 1 billion: People with insecure land rights, fearing loss of home or land (e.g., 28% in MENA, 26% in sub-Saharan Africa).
• 1 in 5: People worldwide who paid bribes for land services in 2019—rising to 1 in 2 in sub-Saharan Africa.
• $500B+ (2013–2018): Agricultural subsidies across 88 countries, 90% of which fueled inefficient, harmful practices.
• $200B/year: Public and private finance for nature-based solutions, dwarfed by $7 trillion/year financing environmental harm.
• 145: nations that pledged in 2021 to halt deforestation by 2030; forest loss has since continued.

* * * * *

COP 16, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia:  2-13 December 2024.  

Theme: “Our Land, Our Future”   www.unccd.int/cop16

The 16th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 16) of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) will take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from 2 to 13 Dec. 2024.

The COP is the main decision-making body of UNCCD’s 197 Parties – 196 countries and the European Union. 

UNCCD is the global voice for land and one of the three major UN treaties known as the Rio Conventions, alongside climate and biodiversity, which recently concluded their COP meetings in Baku, Azerbaijan and Cali, Colombia respectively.

Coinciding with the 30th anniversary of UNCCD, COP 16 will be the largest UN land conference to date, and the first UNCCD COP held in the Middle East and North Africa region, which knows first-hand the impacts of desertification, land degradation and drought.

COP 16 marks a renewed global commitment to accelerate investment and action to restore land and boost drought resilience for the benefit of people and planet.

Coverage highlights:

Land Degradation Expanding by 1M Sq Km a Year, Study Shows (The Guardian, United Kingdom, 19,470,236)

Land use change impacting seven planetary boundaries, solutions urgent, say scientists – Mongabay via MSN.com, United States (125,649,351)

One Million Square Kilometers of Land Are Degraded Every Year, According to the UN (La Vanguardia, Spain, 22,059,310)

Failure to Reverse Soil Degradation Will Pose Challenges for Generations, Potsdam Institute Report Warns (La Voz de Galicia, Spain, 10,161,981)

Desertification: Every Year, the World Loses 100 Million Hectares of Healthy, Productive Land (LCI, France, 7,713,351)

Land degradation severely threatens planetary boundaries — Earth.com (United States, 5,731,108)

Unsustainable Farming, Forest Loss Driving Earth to ‘Precipice’: UN (Dawn.com, Pakistan, 4,653,617)

Global Land Degradation Accelerating at Alarming Rate, New Study Finds (Al Mayadeen English, Lebanon, 409,359)

Earth’s Desertification Emergency: Unprecedented Land Degradation Now Threatens Earth’s Capacity to Sustain Humanity (Down To Earth, India, 1,034,389)

Full coverage summary, click here

News release in full, click here

Bonn/Ulaanbaatar – Degradation of Earth’s extensive, often immense natural pastures and other rangelands due to overuse, misuse, climate change and biodiversity loss poses a severe threat to humanity’s food supply and the wellbeing or survival of billions of people, the UN warns in a stark report today.

Authors of the Global Land Outlook Thematic Report on Rangelands and Pastoralists, launched May 21 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (and available post-embargo at www.unccd.int), say up to 50% of rangelands are degraded.

Symptoms of the problem include diminished soil fertility and nutrients, erosion, salinization, alkalinization, and soil compaction inhibiting plant growth, all of which contribute to drought, precipitation fluctuations, and biodiversity loss both above and below the ground.

The problem is driven largely by converting pastures to cropland and other land use changes due to population growth and urban expansion, rapidly rising food, fibre and fuel demands, excessive grazing, abandonment (end of maintenance by pastoralists), and policies that incentivise overexploitation.

What are rangelands?

The rangelands category of Earth’s land cover consists mostly of the natural grasslands used by livestock and wild animals to graze and forage. 

They also include savannas, shrublands, wetlands, tundra and deserts.  

Altogether, these lands constitute 54% of Earth’s land cover, account for one sixth of global food production and represent nearly one third of the planet’s carbon reservoir.

“When we cut down a forest, when we see a 100-year-old tree fall, it rightly evokes an emotional response in many of us. The conversion of ancient rangelands, on the other hand, happens in ‘silence’ and generates little public reaction,” says UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw. 

“Sadly, these expansive landscapes and the pastoralists and livestock breeders who depend on them, are usually under-appreciated,” Mr. Thiaw adds. “Despite numbering an estimated half a billion individuals worldwide, pastoralist communities are frequently overlooked, lack a voice in policy-making that directly affects their livelihoods, are marginalised, and are even often seen as outsiders in their own lands.”

Mongolia Environment Minister H.E. Bat-Erdene Bat-Ulzii says: “As custodian of the largest grasslands in Eurasia, Mongolia has always been cautious in transforming rangelands. Mongolian traditions are built on the appreciation of resource limits, which defined mobility as a strategy, established shared responsibilities over the land, and set limits in consumption. We hope this report helps focus attention on rangelands and their many enormous values – cultural, environmental, and economic –  which cannot be overstated. If these rangelands cannot support these massive numbers of people, what alternatives can they turn to?”

Mongolia will host the 17th UNCCD Conference of the Parties meeting in 2026, the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists (IYRP), declared by the United Nations General Assembly on Mongolia’s initiative.

Two billion people – small-scale herders, ranchers and farmers, often poor and marginalised – depend on healthy rangelands worldwide. 

Indeed, in many West African states, livestock production employs 80% of the population. In Central Asia and Mongolia 60% of the land area is used as grazing rangelands, with livestock herding supporting nearly one third of the region’s population.

Ironically, the report underlines, efforts to increase food security and productivity by converting rangelands to crop production in mostly arid regions have resulted in degraded land and lowered agricultural yields.

The report calls out “weak and ineffective governance,” “poorly implemented policies and regulations,” and “the lack of investment in rangeland communities and sustainable production models” for undermining rangelands.

An innovative approach

The new report’s 60+ expert contributors from over 40 countries agree that past estimates of degraded rangeland worldwide – roughly 25% – “significantly underestimates the actual loss of rangeland health and productivity” and could be as much as 50%. 

Rangelands are often poorly understood and a lack of reliable data undermines the sustainable management of their immense value in food provisioning and climate regulation, the report warns.

The report details an innovative conceptual approach that would enable policy-makers to stabilise, restore and manage rangelands.  

The new approach is backed by experience detailed in case studies from nearly every world region, drawing important lessons from successes and missteps of rangeland management.

A core recommendation: protect pastoralism, a mobile way of life dating back millennia centred on the pasture-based production of sheep, goats, cattle, horses, camels, yaks, llamas or other domesticated herbivores, along with semi-domesticated species such as bison and reindeer.  

Says Mr. Thiaw: “From the tropics to the Arctic, pastoralism is a desirable default and often the most sustainable option that should be incorporated into rangeland use planning.”

The economic engine of many countries 

Rangelands are an important economic engine in many countries and define cultures. Home to one quarter of the world’s languages, they also host numerous World Heritage Sites and have shaped the value systems, customs and identities of pastoralists for thousands of years. 

The report includes detailed analyses of individual countries and regions.

For example, livestock production accounts for 19% of Ethiopia’s GDP, and 4% of India’s. 

Brazil – with over 250 million cattle — produces 16% of the world’s beef, valued at $7.6 billion in 2019.

In Europe, many rangelands have given way to urbanization, afforestation and renewable energy production. 

In the United States, large tracts of grassland have been converted to crops, while some Canadian grasslands have been left fragile by large-scale mining and infrastructure projects.  There are also positive developments noted, such as growing efforts in both countries to reintroduce bison – an animal of great cultural importance to indigenous peoples – to promote rangeland health and food security. 

World areas most acutely affected by rangelands degradation, ranked in descending order:

Central Asia, China, Mongolia

The replacement of government management and oversight with privatization and agricultural industrialization left herders abandoned and dependent on insufficient natural resources causing widespread degradation.

The gradual restoration of traditional and community-based pastoralism is leading to critical advances in sustainable rangeland management.”

North Africa and Near East

The impact of climate change in one of the world’s driest regions is pushing pastoralists into poverty and degrading the rangelands on which they rely.

Updated traditional institutions, such as Agdals – reservoirs of fodder used to feed animals in periods of critical need and allowing for the regeneration of natural resources – and incipient supportive policies are improving the way rangelands are managed.

Sahel and West Africa

Conflict, power balance and border issues have interrupted livestock mobility leading to rangelands degradation.

Unified policies, recognition of pastoralists’ rights and cross-border agreements are reestablishing mobility for animal herders, crucial for landscape restoration. 

South America

Climatic change, deforestation linked to industrialised agriculture and extractive activities, and land use conversion are South America’s main drivers of rangeland degradation.

Multifunctionality and diversity of pastoralist systems hold the key for restoring some of the most interesting rangelands in the world, including the Pampa, the Cerrado and Caatinga savannahs, and the Puno Andean systems.

East Africa

Migration and forced displacement caused by competing uses of land (such as hunting, tourism, etc), are evicting pastoralists from their traditional lands, causing unanticipated degradation consequences.

Women-led initiatives and improved land rights are securing pastoralists’ livelihoods, protecting biodiversity, and safeguarding the ecosystem services provided by rangelands.

North America

The degradation of ancient grasslands and dry rangelands threatens the biodiversity of iconic North American ecosystems such as the tall-grass prairies or the southern deserts.

The incorporation of indigenous people to rangeland governance is a clear step to help recover these historic landscapes.

Europe

Policies favouring industrial farming over pastoralism and misguided incentives are causing rangelands and other open ecosystems to be abandoned and degraded.

Political and economic support, including legal recognition and differentiation, can turn the tide and help address critical environmental crises such as the rising frequency and intensity of wildfires and climate change.

South Africa and Australia

Afforestation, mining, and the conversion of rangelands to other uses are causing the degradation and loss of rangelands.

The co-creation of knowledge by producers and researchers, and respect for and use of traditional wisdom held by indigenous communities, open new paths for restoring and protecting rangelands. 

Paradigm shift

Halting the deterioration requires a paradigm shift in management at every level – from grassroots to global, the report concludes. 

Pedro Maria Herrera Calvo, the report’s lead author, says: “The meaningful participation of all stakeholders is key to responsible rangeland governance, which fosters collective action, improves access to land and integrates traditional knowledge and practical skills”. 

Achieving “land degradation neutrality” (Sustainable Development Goal 15.3) – balancing the amount and quality of healthy land to support ecosystem services and food security – also requires cross-border cooperation.  

Pastoralists with generations of experience in achieving life in balance with these ecosystems should help inform this process at every step, from planning to decision-making to governance, the report says.  

Solutions must be tailored to the characteristics and dynamics of rangelands, which vary widely from arid to sub-humid environments, as seen in West Africa, India or South America.

The report notes that traditional assessment methods often undervalue the real economic contribution of rangelands and pastoralism, highlighting the need for the innovative approach recommended. 

Among key recommendations: 

• Integrated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies with sustainable rangeland management plans to increase carbon sequestration and storage while boosting the resilience of pastoralist and rangeland communities
• Avoid or reduce rangeland conversion and other land use changes that diminish the diversity and multifunctionality of rangelands, especially on indigenous and communal lands
• Design and adopt rangeland conservation measures, within and outside protected areas, that support biodiversity above and below ground while boosting the health, productivity, and resilience of extensive livestock production systems

• Adopt and support pastoralism-based strategies and practices that help mitigate harms to rangeland health, such as climate change, overgrazing, soil erosion, invasive species, drought, and wildfires
• Promote supportive policies, full people’s participation and flexible management and governance systems to boost the services that rangelands and pastoralists provide  to the whole society.

Additional key figures

• 80 million sq. km: Area of the world’s terrestrial surface covered by rangelands (over 54%)
• 9.5 million sq. km: Protected rangelands worldwide (12%)
• 67 million sq. km (45% of Earth’s terrestrial surface): Rangelands’ area devoted to livestock production systems (84% of rangelands), almost half of which are in drylands.  Livestock provide food security and generate income for the majority of the 1.2 billion people in developing countries living under the poverty threshold
• 1 billion: animals across more than 100 countries maintained by pastoralists, supporting 200 million households while providing about 10% of world meat supply, as well as dairy, wool and leather products 
• 33%: global biodiversity hotspots found in rangelands
• 24%: proportion of world languages found in rangelands
• 5,000 years ago: When pastoralism first emerged as a land-use system in sub-Saharan Africa 

REGIONAL FACTS & FIGURES

• Over 25% and 10%: Supply of world beef and milk, respectively, provided by Latin America’s cattle industry
• Over 25%: GDP of Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad attributed to livestock production
• Over 50%: land in the Middle East and North Africa regions deemed degraded (25% of arable land)
• 60%: area of Central Asia and Mongolia used as grazing rangelands, with livestock herding supporting nearly one third of the region’s population
• 40%: area of China covered by pastoral lands. (Notably, the country’s livestock population tripled between 1980 and 2010 to 441 million livestock units)
• 308 million hectares: area of the contiguous United States covered by rangelands, 31% of the country’s total land area, with ~55% of rangelands privately owned

Comments

“Imbalance between the supply of and demand for animal forage lands leads to overgrazing, invasive species, and the increased risk of drought and wildfires – all of which accelerate desertification and land degradation trends around the world.”

“We must translate our shared aspirations into concrete actions – stopping indiscriminate conversion of rangelands into unsuitable land uses, advocating for policies that support sustainable land management, investing in research that enhances our understanding of rangelands and pastoralism, empowering pastoralist communities to preserve their sustainable practices while also gaining tools to thrive in a changing world, and supporting all stakeholders, especially pastoralists, to implement measures that effectively thwart further degradation and preserve our land, our communities, and our cultures.”

Maryam Niamir-Fuller, Co-Chair, International Support Group for the UN’s International Year for Rangelands and Pastoralists – 2026

For the sake of future generations and economic stability, we need to improve awareness of and safeguard the immense value of rangelands. Due to their dynamic nature, predicting the consequences of rangelands degradation on economics, ecology, and societies is challenging. Managers require authoritative insights into the response of rangelands to different disturbances and management approaches, including policy tools that better capture the broad social importance of rangelands.

Carlos Manuel Rodríguez, CEO and Chairperson, Global Environment Facility 

“More than half of the world’s land mass is rangeland – and yet these landscapes and the people who inhabit and manage them have been largely neglected. They are a main source of food and feed for humanity, and yet they are also the world economy’s dumping ground.  It is time to shift perspective – from ‘a rangeland problem’ to ‘a sustainable rangeland solution’.

UN International Year of Rangelands & Pastoralists (IYRP) Working Group

“Pastoralists produce food in the world’s harshest environments, and pastoral production supports the livelihoods of rural populations on almost half of the world’s land. They have traditionally suffered from poor understanding, marginalization, and exclusion from dialogue. We need to bring together pastoralists and the main actors working with them to join forces and create the synergies for dialogue and pastoralist development

UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)

“To have any chance of meeting global biodiversity, climate and food security goals, we simply cannot afford to lose any more of our rangelands, grasslands and savannahs. Our planet suffers from their ongoing conversion, as do the pastoralists who depend on them for their livelihoods, and all those who rely on them for food, water and other vital ecosystem services. The Global Land Outlook reinforces that too little political attention or finance is invested in protecting and restoring these critical ecosystems. National and sub-national authorities must take place-based action to safeguard and improve the health and productivity of rangelands, grasslands and savannahs – to benefit people and planet.”

Joao Campari, Global Food Practice Leader, World Wildlife Fund

* * * * * 

About UNCCD

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) is an international agreement on good land stewardship. It helps people, communities and countries create wealth, grow economies and secure enough food, clean water and energy by ensuring land users an enabling environment for sustainable land management. Through partnerships, the Convention’s 197 parties set up robust systems to manage drought promptly and effectively. Good land stewardship based on sound policy and science helps integrate and accelerate achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, builds resilience to climate change and prevents biodiversity loss. 

https://unccd.int

About the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists

On the initiative of Mongolia, the United Nations General Assembly has designated 2026 the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists (IYRP 2026) to enhance rangeland management and the lives of pastoralists. With this declaration, UN Member States are called upon to invest in sustainable rangeland management, to restore degraded lands, to improve market access by pastoralists, to enhance livestock extension services, and to fill knowledge gaps on rangelands and pastoralism. The IYRP 2026 will coincide with the UNCCD COP17 to be hosted by Mongolia.

https://iyrp.info

Media coverage highlights

Agence France Presse, Demise of rangelands ‘severely underestimated’: report https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-13441605/Demise-rangelands-severely-underestimated-report.html

Agence France Presse (French version) via Orange actu, France (3,114,035), La dégradation des grands pâturages mondiaux est “gravement sous-estimée”, alerte l’ONU (The degradation of the world’s great pastures is “seriously underestimated”, warns the UN) https://actu.orange.fr/societe/environnement/la-degradation-des-grands-paturages-mondiaux-est-amp-quot-gravement-sous-estimee-amp-quot-alerte-l-onu-CNT000002dVn8N.html

Reuters, United Kingdom, Half of world’s pastures degraded by overuse, climate change, UN report says, https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/half-worlds-pastures-degraded-by-overuse-climate-change-un-report-says-2024-05-21

Reuters Portuguese, Metade das pastagens do mundo está degradada por uso excessivo e clima, mostra relatório da ONU (Half of the world’s pastures are degraded by overuse and climate, UN report shows) https://www.terra.com.br/noticias/mundo/metade-das-pastagens-do-mundo-esta-degradada-por-uso-excessivo-e-clima-mostra-relatorio-da-onu,824cede2269d9c4bfb5fbe0c31add9c46utdeu33.html

Deutsche Presse Agentur (DPA), Germany 1) Natur: UN: Graslandschaften in Not(UN: Grasslands in need) https://www.focus.de/wissen/diverses/natur-un-graslandschaften-in-not_id_259961607.html; 2) Fast die Hälfte der Graslandschaften in schlechtem Zustand(Almost half of the grasslands are in poor condition) https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/uno-bericht-fast-die-haelfte-der-graslandschaften-in-schlechtem-zustand-a-1bb638fc-e973-4dd4-99b8-b7a8f6d47c4b

Agencia EFE, Spain, La degradación de los pastizales del planeta ponen en riesgo el suministro de alimentos (The degradation of the planet’s grasslands puts the food supply at risk) https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2024/05/21/la-degradacion-de-los-pastizales-del-planeta-ponen-en-riesgo-el-suministro-de-alimentos

Xinhua Chinese, China, 联合国报告呼吁加强保护牧场 (UN report calls for greater protection of rangelands) https://www.163.com/dy/article/J2NQM4BJ05346RC6.html

Xinhua English, Silent demise of rangelands threatens climate, food security: UN report https://english.news.cn/20240521/0692447051764f068998b629cd2023e6/c.html

Press Trust of India, India ‘Silent demise’ of rangelands threatens climate survival of billions worldwide UN report, https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/national/2024/05/21/del40-env-rangelands.html

BBC, United Kingdom (98,593,830), starts at 45’09’ https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172zb8w3kb84ys

Radio France International (RFI), France, Les pâturages, des terres fragiles qu’il faut préserver https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/questions-d-environnement/20240521-les-p%C3%A2turages-des-terres-fragiles-qu-il-faut-pr%C3%A9server

The Indian Express, India (60,889,380) Pastoralists in India need better access to land and rights recognition, says UN report https://indianexpress.com/article/india/pastoralists-india-land-un-report-9342969/

Down to Earth, India, Rangelands are facing a ‘silent demise’, suffering losses as high as 50% https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/agriculture/rangelands-are-facing-a-silent-demise-suffering-losses-as-high-as-50–96257

Full coverage summary, click here

News release in full, click here

UNCCD launches ‘Global Drought Snapshot’ report at COP28 in collaboration with International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA)

Recent drought-related data based on research in the past two years and compiled by the UN point to “an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale, where the massive impacts of human-induced droughts are only starting to unfold.”

According to the report, ‘Global Drought Snapshot,’ launched by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) at the outset of COP28 climate talks in the UAE, few if any hazard claims more lives, causes more economic loss and affects more sectors of societies than drought.

UNCCD is one of three Conventions originated at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The other two address climate change (UNFCCC) and biodiversity (UN CBD). 

Says UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw: “Unlike other disasters that attract media attention, droughts happen silently, often going unnoticed and failing to provoke an immediate public and political response. This silent devastation perpetuates a cycle of neglect, leaving affected populations to bear the burden in isolation.”

“The Global Drought Snapshot report speaks volumes about the urgency of this crisis and building global resilience to it.  With the frequency and severity of drought events increasing, as reservoir levels dwindle and crop yields decline, as we continue to lose biological diversity and famines spread, transformational change is needed.” 

“We hope this publication serves as a wake-up call.”

Drought data, selected highlights:

• 15–20%: Population of China facing more frequent moderate-to-severe droughts within this century (Yin et al., 2022)
• 80%: Expected increase in drought intensity in China by 2100 (Yin et al., 2022)
• 23 million: people deemed severely food insecure across the Horn of Africa in December 2022 (WFP, 2023)
• 5%: Area of the contiguous United States suffering severe to extreme drought (Palmer Drought Index) in May, 2023 (NOAA, 2023)
• 78: Years since drought conditions were as severe as they were in the La Plata basin of Brazil–Argentina in 2022, reducing crop production and affecting global crop markets (WMO, 2023a)
• 630,000 km² (roughly the combined area of Italy and Poland): Extent of Europe impacted by drought in 2022 as it experienced its hottest summer and second warmest year on record, almost four times the average 167,000 km² impacted between 2000 and 2022 (EEA, 2023)
• 500: years since Europe last experienced a drought as bad as in 2022 (World Economic Forum, 2022)
• 170 million: people expected to experience extreme drought if average global temperatures rise 3°C above pre-industrial levels, 50 million more than expected if  warming is limited to 1.5°C (IPCC, 2022)

Agriculture and forests

• 70%: Cereal crops damaged by drought in the Mediterranean, 2016–2018

• 33%: loss of grazing land in South Africa due to drought (‌Ruwanza et al., 2022)
• Double or triple: Expected forest losses in the Mediterranean region under 3°C warming compared to current risk (Rossi et al., 2023)

• 5: Consecutive rainfall season failures in the Horn of Africa, causing the region’s worst drought in 40 years (with Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia particularly hard hit), contributing to reduced agricultural productivity, food insecurity and high food prices (WMO, 2023).
• 73,000 km²: average area of EU cropland (or ~5%) impacted by drought, 2000-2022, contributing to crop failures (EEA, 2023)
• $70 billion: Africa’s drought-related economic losses in the past 50 years (WMO, 2022).
• 44%: Expected drop in Argentina’s soybean production in 2023 relative to the last five years, the lowest harvest since 1988/89, contributing to an estimated 3% drop in Argentina’s GDP for 2023 (EU Science Hub, 2023)

Water conditions

• 75%: Reduction of cargo capacity of some vessels on the Rhine due to low river levels in 2022, leading to severe delays to shipping arrivals and departures (World Economic Forum, 2022)
• 5 million: People in southern China affected by record-low water levels in the Yangtze River due to drought and prolonged heat (WMO, 2023a)
• 2,000: backlog of barges on the Mississippi River in late 2022 due to low water levels, causing $20 billion in supply chain disruptions and other economic damage (World Economic Forum, 2022)
• 2–5 times: Acceleration of long-term rates of groundwater-level decline and water-quality degradation in California’s Central Valley basins over the past 30 years due to drought-induced pumpage (Levy et al., 2021) 

Social dimensions 

• 85%: People affected by droughts who live in low- or middle-income countries (World Bank, 2023)
• 15 times: Greater likelihood of being killed by floods, droughts and storms in highly vulnerable regions relative to regions with very low vulnerability, 2010 to 2020 (IPCC, 2023)
• 1.2 million: people in the Central American Dry Corridor needing food aid after five years of drought, heatwaves and unpredictable rainfall (UNEP, 2022)

Remedies

• Up to 25%: CO2 emissions that could be offset by nature-based solutions including land restoration (Pan et al., 2023)
• Almost 100%: Reduction in the conversion of global forests and natural land for agriculture if just half of animal products such as pork, chicken, beef and milk consumed today were replaced with sustainable alternatives (Carbon Brief, 2023)
• 20 to 50%: Potential reduction in water waste if conventional sprinkler systems were replaced by micro-irrigation (drip irrigation), which delivers water directly to plant roots (STEM Writer, 2022).
• 20%: EU’s land and sea areas to be made subject to restoration measures by 2030, with measures in place for all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050 (European Council, 2023)
• $2 billion: investment by AFR100 in African organizations, businesses and government-led projects, announced this year with further anticipated investments of $15 billion to foster the restoration of 20 million hectares of land by 2026, generating an estimated $135 billion in benefits to around 40 million people. (Hess, 2021)
• 6: Riparian countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali and Togo) participating in the Volta basin Flood and Drought management project, the first large-scale, transboundary implementation of Integrated Flood and Drought Management strategies, including an End-to-End Early Warning System for Flood Forecasting and Drought Prediction (Deltares, 2023)
• ~45%: global disaster-related losses that were insured in 2020, up from 40% in 1980-2018. However, disaster insurance cover remains very low in many developing countries (UNDRR, 2022)
• 50 km: the resolution of the water distribution maps thanks to a recently-developed method of combining satellite measurements with high-resolution meteorological data, an major improvement from the previous 300 kilometers resolution (Gerdener et al., 2023)

The report was unveiled at a high-level event with the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA) in Dubai (webcast at www.youtube.com/@THEUNCCD, 16:00 Dubai time / 12:00 GMT.  It is part of UNCCD’s series of Land and Drought Dialogues at COP28: https://bit.ly/3Gh7GZd). 

Launched by the leaders of Spain and Senegal at COP27, IDRA is the first global coalition creating political momentum and mobilizing financial and technical resources for a drought-resilient future. Australia, Colombia, Italy and the Union of Comoros, together with the Commonwealth Secretariat and other major international organizations, are being announced at COP28 as IDRA’s latest members, bringing the Alliance’s total membership to 34 countries and 28 entities.

Additional highlights from the report:

Several findings in this report highlight land restoration, sustainable land management and nature positive agricultural practices as critical aspects of building global drought resilience. By adopting nature-positive farming techniques, such as drought-resistant crops, efficient irrigation methods, no-till and other soil conservation practices, farmers can reduce the impact of drought on their crops and incomes.

Efficient water management is another key component of global drought resilience. This includes investing in sustainable water supply systems, conservation measures and the promotion of water-efficient technologies.

Disaster preparedness and early warning systems are also essential for global drought resilience. Investing in meteorological monitoring, data collection and risk assessment tools can help respond quickly to drought emergencies and minimize impacts.  Building global drought resilience requires international cooperation, knowledge sharing as well as environmental and social justice.

“Several countries already experience climate-change-induced famine,” says the report.

“Forced migration surges globally; violent water conflicts are on the rise; the ecological base that enables all life on earth is eroding more quickly than at any time in known human history.”

“We have no alternative to moving forward in a way that respects the planet’s boundaries and the interdependencies of all forms of life. We need to reach binding global agreements for proactive measures that are to be taken by nations to curtail the spells of drought.”

“The less space the developed human world occupies, the more natural hydrological cycles will stay intact. Restoring, rebuilding and revitalizing all those landscapes that we degraded and destroyed is the imperative of our time. Urban intensification, active family planning, and curbing rapid population growth are prerequisites for societal development that respects planetary boundaries.”

* * * * * 

About 

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) is an international agreement on good land stewardship. It helps people, communities and countries create wealth, grow economies and secure enough food, clean water and energy by ensuring land users an enabling environment for sustainable land management. Through partnerships, the Convention’s 197 parties set up robust systems to manage drought promptly and effectively. Good land stewardship based on sound policy and science helps integrate and accelerate achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, builds resilience to climate change and prevents biodiversity loss. 

* * * * 

Media coverage highlights

Le Monde, France (28 million) La sécheresse affecte plus de 1,8 milliard de personnes à travers le monde Drought affects more than 1.8 billion people around the world https://www.lemonde.fr/climat/article/2023/12/01/la-secheresse-affecte-plus-de-1-8-milliard-de-personnes-a-travers-le-monde_6203400_1652612.html

Fox, via Yahoo! News, United States (potential impressions: 60,271,710) Increasing droughts ‘an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale,’ UN warns https://news.yahoo.com/increasing-droughts-unprecedented-emergency-planetary-120047120.html

Xinhua newswire, via NetEase News / 网易新闻, China (45,831,554) (迪拜气候大会）《全球干旱概况》：全球干旱已达前所未有的紧急状况 (Dubai Climate Conference) “Overview of Global Drought”: Global drought has reached unprecedented emergency situations https://www.163.com/dy/article/IKTIGQ1V05346RC6.html

Xinhua – English, China (487,943) Droughts “an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale”: UN report  https://english.news.cn/20231201/b218358ae5bc4ae6909fc578305caacf/c.html
The Times of India (34,455,424) Drought data shows an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale: UN  https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/drought-data-shows-an-unprecedented-emergency-on-a-planetary-scale-un/articleshow/105659527.cms

Newsweek, United States (30,146,125) Drought Unfolding As ‘Unprecedented’ Planetary-Scale Emergency  https://www.newsweek.com/drought-unfolding-unprecedented-planetary-scale-emergency-1848670

Bloomberg newswire, United States (28,503,275) UN Drought Report Highlights ‘Silent’ Threat to Warming Planet https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-01/un-drought-report-highlights-silent-threat-to-warming-planet

ABC, Spain (23,147,830)1) España pide el fin de los combustibles fósiles en la COP28 Spain asks for the end of fossil fuels in COP28  https://www.abc.es/antropia/espana-pide-fin-combustibles-fosiles-cop28-20231201155651-nt.html
2) La ONU avisa: la sequía se ha convertido en «una emergencia sin precedentes a escala planetaria» The UN warns: drought has become “an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale” https://www.abc.es/sociedad/onu-avisa-sequia-convertido-emergencia-precedentes-escala-20231201130936-nt.html

Anadolu Agency newswire, Turkey (11,398,703) Zbog suše će do 2050. godine skoro 216 miliona ljudi morati migrirati Due to the drought by 2050, almost 216 million people will need to migrate https://www.aa.com.tr/ba/ekonomija/zbog-su%c5%a1e-%c4%87e-do-2050-godine-skoro-216-miliona-ljudi-morati-migrirati/3068038

Europa Press newswire, Spain (10,670,089)Sánchez anuncia que Barcelona celebrará en 2024 la reunión internacional de la Alianza Global contra la Sequía Sanchez announces that Barcelona will celebrate the international meeting of the Global Alliance against Drought in 2024  https://www.europapress.es/sociedad/noticia-sanchez-anuncia-barcelona-celebrara-2024-reunion-internacional-alianza-global-contra-sequia-20231201150753.html

ORF, Austria (7,591,460)UNO warnt vor steigender Gefahr durch Dürren UN warns of increasing danger through droughts https://orf.at/stories/3341518/

New Scientist, United Kingdom (4,344,079) World must prepare for frequent and severe droughts, report warns  https://www.newscientist.com/article/2405887-world-must-prepare-for-frequent-and-severe-droughts-report-warns/

The Guardian, United Kingdom (1,736,546) Planetary emergency: Droughts, the deadliest of disasters

El Independiente, Spain (3,482,363)Las cifras del impacto de la sequía a nivel mundial: “Es una emergencia sin precedentes “The figures for the impact of drought worldwide: “It is an unprecedented emergency” https://www.elindependiente.com/futuro/medio-ambiente/2023/12/01/las-cifras-del-impacto-de-la-sequia-a-nivel-mundial-es-una-emergencia-sin-precedentes/

Agencia EFE newswire, via Yahoo! Noticias en Español, United States (2,719,351) El retrato global de la sequía aporta datos de una emergencia planetaria “sin precedentes “The global portrait of drought provides data from an unprecedented planetary emergency” https://es-us.noticias.yahoo.com/retrato-global-sequ%C3%ADa-aporta-datos-124214799.html

Trouw, Netherlands (2,321,747) Verenigde Naties waarschuwen: droogte neemt nog sterk toe United Nations Warn: Drought is still increasing sharply https://www.trouw.nl/duurzaamheid-economie/verenigde-naties-waarschuwen-droogte-neemt-nog-sterk-toe~ba456464/

Deutsche Presse Agentur, newswire via Comdirect, Germany (2,250,606) Vereinte Nationen warnen vor steigender Gefahr durch United Nations warns of increasing danger from  https://www.comdirect.de/inf/news/detail.html?ID_NEWS=1122680739

Bnn Network (India) (1,691,953) Drought May Displace 216 Million People by 2050, Warns UNCCD Report https://bnn.network/breaking-news/climate-environment/drought-may-displace-216-million-people-by-2050-warns-unccd-report/

De Tijd, Belgium (1,250,171) VN-rapport wijst op droogte op nooit geziene schaal UN report points to drought on never-seen scale https://share.belga.press/news/b4e6e765-e130-4176-ada4-a6b16b6465a2

SciDev.net (United Kingdom) Nearly one in four people now drought stricken – UN https://www.scidev.net/global/news/nearly-one-in-four-people-now-drought-stricken-un/

Coverage summary in full, click here

News release in full, click here

Two billion tons of sand and dust, equal in weight to 350 Great Pyramids of Giza, enter the atmosphere every year; UNCCD experts attribute over 25% of the problem to human activities; Wreaks havoc from Northern and Central Asia to sub-Saharan Africa; Health impacts poorly understood

Sand and dust storms are an under-appreciated problem now “dramatically” more frequent in some places worldwide, with at least 25% of the phenomenon attributed to human activities, according to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

Accompanied by policy recommendations, the warning comes as a five-day meeting takes place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan to take stock of global progress in the Convention’s implementation. The UNCCD is one of three Conventions originated at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The other two address climate change (UNFCCC) and biodiversity (UN CBD).

The meeting, 13-17 November (www.unccd.int/cric21) , includes a high-level session on 15 November hosted by the Government of Uzbekistan on ways to address the impacts of sand and dust storms on global agriculture, industry, transportation ​, water and air quality​, and human health​.

Says Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD’s Executive Secretary: “The sight of rolling dark clouds of sand and dust engulfing everything in their path and turning day into night is one of nature’s most intimidating spectacles. “It is a costly phenomenon that wreaks havoc everywhere from Northern and Central Asia to sub-Saharan Africa.”

“Sand and dust storms present a formidable challenge to achieving sustainable development. However, just as sand and dust storms are exacerbated by human activities, they can also be reduced through human actions,” adds Thiaw. ​

While sand and dust storms (SDS) are a regionally common and seasonal natural phenomenon, the problem is exacerbated by poor land and water management, droughts, and climate change, according to UNCCD experts.

And fluctuations in their intensity, magnitude, or duration “can make SDS unpredictable and dangerous.”

With impacts far beyond the source regions, an estimated 2 billion tons of sand and dust now enters the atmosphere every year, an amount equal in weight to 350 Great Pyramids of Giza.

In some areas, desert dust doubled in the last century.

“Sand and dust storms (SDS) have become increasingly frequent and severe having substantial transboundary impacts, affecting various aspects of the environment, climate, health, agriculture, livelihoods and the socioeconomic well-being of individuals. The accumulation of impacts from sand and dust storms can be significant,” says Feras Ziadat, Technical Officer at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), Chair of the UN Coalition on Combating Sand and Dust Storms.

“In source areas, they damage crops, affect livestock, and strip topsoil. In depositional areas atmospheric dust, especially in combination with local industrial pollution, can cause or worsen human health problems such as respiratory diseases. Communications, power generation, transportation, and supply chains can also be disrupted by low visibility and dust-induced mechanical failures. The United Nations Coalition on Combating Sand and Dust Storms, chaired by FAO, was created in 2019 to lead global efforts to address SDS.”

In their Sand and Dust Storms Compendium (https://bit.ly/3slJ6mE) and accompanying SDS Toolbox (https://bit.ly/3QSPWcI), the UNCCD, FAO and partners offer guidance on approaches and methodologies for collecting and assessing SDS data, monitoring and early warning, impact mitigation and preparedness, and source mapping and anthropogenic source mitigation at sub-national, national, regional and global levels.

The SDS discussion forms part of the agenda of this year’s meeting in Uzbekistan of the UNCCD’s Committee for the Review of the Implementation of the Convention (CRIC 21) and global progress in delivering the Convention’s strategic objectives. It marks the first time since its establishment that UNCCD has agreed to one of its most significant meetings in Central Asia.

The meeting comes at a critical juncture, as recent statistics published via UNCCD’s new data dashboard (https://data.unccd.int) shows the world now losing nearly 1 million square kilometers of healthy and productive land every year – some 4.2 million square kilometers between 2015-2019, or roughly the combined area of ​​five Central Asian nations: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

During the meeting (at 18:00 local time / 13:00 GMT, Tuesday 14 November) UNCCD and FAO experts will launch three reports:

Sand and dust storms. A guide to mitigation, adaptation, policy and risk management measures in agriculture (https://bit.ly/40zSEad)
Contingency planning process for catalysing investments and actions to enhance resilience against sand and dust storms in agriculture in the Islamic Republic of Iran (https://bit.ly/3QP8pqF) and
Preparing for sand and dust storm contingency planning with herding communities: a case study on Mongolia (https://bit.ly/3swg8Rd)

Other items on the CRIC 21 agenda include promoting sustainable land management, ensuring fair land rights for women, and tackling droughts and wildfires exacerbated by climate change and environmental degradation.

Background: Sand and dust storms

Sand and dust storms (SDS) are known by many local names: the sirocco, haboob, yellow dust, white storms, or the harmattan.

While SDS can fertilize both land and marine ecosystems, they also present a range of hazards to human health, livelihoods and the environment.

SDS events typically originate in low-latitude drylands and sub-humid areas where vegetation cover is sparse or absent.

They can also occur in other environments, including agricultural and high-latitude areas in humid regions, when specific wind and atmospheric conditions coincide. SDS events can have substantial transboundary impacts, over thousands of kilometers. Unified and coherent global and regional policy responses are needed, especially to address source mitigation, early warning systems, and monitoring.

SDS often have significant economic impacts: for example, they cost the oil sector in Kuwait an estimated US$ 190 million annually, while a single SDS event in 2009 resulted in damage estimated at US$ 229 – 243 million in Australia.

The major global sources of mineral dust are in the northern hemisphere across North Africa, the Middle East and East Asia. In the southern hemisphere, Australia, South America and Southern Africa are the main dust sources.

More than 80% of Central Asia is covered by deserts and steppes which, coupled with climate change and lasting droughts, represent a major natural source of sand and dust storms.

The dried-up Aral Sea is a major source of SDS, emitting more than 100 million tons of dust and poisonous salts every year, impacting the health not just of the people living in the vicinity, but far beyond and generating annual losses of US$ 44 million.

Recognition of SDS as a disaster risk appears to be high in North-East Asia, parts of West Asia and North America but less prominent elsewhere.

Low recognition of SDS as a disaster risk is likely due to the lack (in many cases) of significant immediate direct human fatalities or injuries from individual SDS events, and limited consolidated documentation on their long-term health, economic or other impacts.

SDS and health

SDS can be life-threatening for individuals with adverse health conditions.

Fine dust particles are carried to high tropospheric levels (up to a few kilometers high) where winds can transport them over long distances.

The health implications of SDS have been under increased research for decades, with most studies conducted in East Asia, Europe and the Middle East. There has been a lack of studies in West Africa.

A particular focus of this research has been SDS modification of air pollution.

The cause-and-effect between sand and dust in the atmosphere and health outcomes remains unclear and requires more extensive study. What can be said is that at-risk members of a population, especially those with pre-existing cardiopulmonary issues, including childhood asthma, may have a higher mortality or morbidity rate during a dust storm.

SDS can also impose major costs on the agricultural sector through crop destruction or reduced yield, animal death or lower yields of milk or meat, and damage to infrastructure.

For annual crops, losses are due to burial of seedlings or crops under sand deposits, loss of plant tissue and reduced photosynthetic activity as a result of sandblasting. This can lead to complete crop loss in a region or reduced yield.

There may also be a longer-term effect on some perennial crops due to tree or crop damage (such as lucerne/alfalfa crowns being damaged).

On a positive note, SDS dust can contain soil nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, as well as organic carbon. Some places benefit from this nutrient deposition on land, and mineral and nutrient deposition on water, particularly ocean bodies. When deposited, these can provide nutrients to downwind crop or pasture areas. These limited benefits, however, are far outweighed by the harms done.

Globally, the main large dust sources are dried lakes; Local sources include glacial outwash plains, volcanic ash zones and recently plowed fields.

The multi-faceted, cross-sectoral and transnational impacts of SDS directly affect 11 of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals yet global recognition of SDS as a hazard is generally low due in part to the complexity and seasonally cumulative impact of SDS, coupled with limited data .

Insufficient information and impact assessments hinder effective decision-making and planning to effectively address SDS sources and impacts.

UNCCD helps governments create policies to promote the scaling-up of sustainable land management practices and to find and use the latest science to develop and implement effective mitigation policies.

Working with The Regional Environmental Center for Central Asia , (https://bit.ly/46aAhKq) UNCCD assists countries vulnerable to drought and sand and dust storms in Central Asia to develop and implement risk reduction strategies at national and regional level. UNCCD encourages countries to adopt a comprehensive risk reduction strategy with monitoring and early warning systems to improve preparedness and resilience to these environmental disasters.

Among the measures most needed are

A multi-sector approach bolstered by information-sharing, short- and long-term interventions, engaging multiple stakeholders, and raising awareness of SDS.

Land restoration, using soil and water management practices to protect soils and increase vegetative cover, which have been shown to significantly reduce the extent and vulnerability of source areas, and reduce the intensity of typical SDS events.

Early warning and monitoring, building on up-to-date risk knowledge, and forecasting, with all stakeholders (including at-risk populations) participating to ensure that warnings are provided in a timely and targeted manner

Impact mitigation, through preparedness to reduce vulnerability, increase resilience, and enables a timely, effective response to SDS events

* * * *

The UNCCD is an international agreement on good land stewardship. It helps people, communities and countries create wealth, grow economies and secure enough food, clean water and energy by ensuring land users an enabling environment for sustainable land management. Through partnerships, the Convention’s 197 parties set up robust systems to manage drought promptly and effectively. Good land stewardship based on sound policy and science helps integrate and accelerate achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, builds resilience to climate change and prevents biodiversity loss.

The UNCCD Secretariat led the creation of the SDS Compendium document in collaboration with the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), UN Women, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), the UN Development Programme (UNDP), the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), and external experts and partners.

* * * * *

Media coverage highlights

Agence France Presse, via Yahoo! News, United States (60,271,710) Threat from sand and dust storms spreading: UN https://news.yahoo.com/threat-sand-dust-storms-spreading-085241715.html

Reuters, United Kingdom (54,756,031)
Worsening sand, dust storms driving global land loss, says UN https://www.reuters.com/article/global-environment-sandstorms/worsening-sand-dust-storms-driving-global-land-loss-says-un-idUSL1N3CG0OS

Deutsche Presse Agentur, via t-online, Germany (21,641,104) Naturkatastrophe | UN-Experten warnen vor Sandstürmen: “Unterschätztes Problem “Natural disaster | UN experts warn of sandstorms: “underestimated problem” https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/panorama/vermischtes/id_100281608/un-experten-warnen-vor-sandstuermen-unterschaetztes-problem-.html

EuroNews, Belgium ‘Unpredictable and dangerous’: What is human activity doing to sand and dust storms?
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/11/15/unpredictable-and-dangerous-what-is-human-activity-doing-to-sand-and-dust-storms

Europa Press, Spain, via Infobae, Argentina (70,894,996) Aumenta la frecuencia de tormentas de polvo, en parte por causa humana Increases the frequency of dust storms, partly due to human cause https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2023/11/15/aumenta-la-frecuencia-de-tormentas-de-polvo-en-parte-por-causa-humana/

Agencia EFE, Spain, via Infobae, Argentina (70,894,996) Aumenta la frecuencia de tormentas de arena y polvo en el mundo, advierte la ONU Increases the frequency of sand and dust storms in the world, warns the UN https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2023/11/15/aumenta-la-frecuencia-de-tormentas-de-arena-y-polvo-en-el-mundo-advierte-la-onu/

Libération, France (9,050,211)
La fréquence des tempêtes de sable et de poussière «en forte hausse», avertit l’ONU The frequency of sandstorms of sand and dust “upstairs”, warns the UN https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/la-frequence-des-tempetes-de-sable-et-de-poussiere-en-forte-hausse-avertit-lonu-20231115_IB63KDBQJFFGNFUOWPVMB7WMNQ/

Correio Braziliense, Brazil (8,755,803) Temporais de poeira cada vez mais frequentes Increasingly frequent dust storms
https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/ciencia-e-saude/2023/11/6655232-relatorio-mostra-o-impacto-das-mudancas-climaticas-na-saude-humana.html

Radio France International, France (8,047,661) Pourquoi la désertification et les tempêtes de sable inquiètent? Why desertification and sandstorms worry? https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/questions-d-environnement/20231115-pourquoi-la-d%C3%A9sertification-et-les-temp%C3%AAtes-de-sable-inqui%C3%A8tent

ORF Online, Austria (7,591,460) Sandstürme sind unterschätztes Problem Sandstorms are underestimated problemhttps://science.orf.at/stories/3222137/

ANTARA News, Indonesia (7,220,692) PBB: Lahan produktif hilang akibat badai pasir, debu yang memburuk UN: Productive land is lost due to sandstorm, deteriorating dusthttps://www.antaranews.com/berita/3824529/pbb-lahan-produktif-hilang-akibat-badai-pasir-debu-yang-memburuk

GEO, France (7,117,832) 350 pyramides de Khéops par an : pourquoi tant de sable et de poussière s’élèvent-ils vers l’atmosphère ? 350 pyramids of khéops per year: why so much sand and dust rise to the atmosphere?https://www.geo.fr/environnement/desertification-350-pyramides-kheops-par-an-pourquoi-tant-de-sable-et-poussiere-elevent-vers-atmosphere-vents-217532

Le Temps, Switzerland (2,600,762) Les tempêtes de sable se multiplient en raison du changement climatique, alerte l’ONU Sandstorms are increasing due to climate change, alerts the UN https://www.letemps.ch/sciences/les-tempetes-de-sable-se-multiplient-en-raison-du-changement-climatique-alerte-l-onu

RTBF, Belgium (5,577,094) with AFP/Belga newswires
Climat: l’ONU alerte contre l’augmentation “dramatique” des tempêtes de sable Climate: the UN alerts against the “dramatic” increase in sandstorms https://www.rtbf.be/article/climat-l-onu-alerte-contre-l-augmentation-dramatique-des-tempetes-de-sable-11286973

Protothemanews, Greece (4,604,704) ΟΗΕ: Γιατί οι καταιγίδες άμμου και σκόνης γίνονται χειρότερες – Ο κόσμος χάνει σχεδόν 1 εκατομμύριο τ.χλμ. γης UN: Why sand and dust storms get worse – people lose almost 1 million sq. Km. land https://www.protothema.gr/environment/article/1435735/oie-giati-oi-kataigides-ammou-kai-skonis-ginodai-heiroteres-o-kosmos-hanei-shedon-1-ekatommurio-thlm-gis/

Bnn, India (1,691,953) Story 1) Land Degradation: A Global Crisis Worsened by Human Activities https://bnn.network/breaking-news/climate-environment/land-degradation-a-global-crisis-worsened-by-human-activities; Story 2) Desertification Threatens Global Economy and Security, Says UNCCD https://bnn.network/breaking-news/climate-environment/desertification-threatens-global-economy-and-security-says-unccd/

UzDaily, Uzbekistan (52,582) 25% песчаных и пыльных бурь вызывает человеческая деятельность 25% of sand and dusty storms caused by human activity http://www.uzdaily.uz/ru/post/81273

Imag, Ukraine (32,083) «Для Узбекистана проблема песчаных и пыльных бурь актуальна как никогда» — глава Минэкологии“For Uzbekistan, the problem of sandy and dust storms is more relevant than ever” – the head of the Ministry of Ecology https://imag.one/news/dlya-uzbekistana-problema-peschanyh-i-pylnyh/14137343

Full coverage summary, click here

News release in full, click here

Humanity is “at a crossroads” when it comes to managing drought and accelerating mitigation must be done “urgently, using every tool we can,” says a new report from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

“​​Drought In Numbers, 2022,” released today to mark Drought Day at UNCCD’s 15th Conference of Parties (COP15, 9-20 May in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire) – calls for making a full global commitment to drought preparedness and resilience in all global regions a top priority. 

The report, an authoritative compendium of drought-related information and data, helps inform negotiations of one of several decisions by UNCCD’s 196 member states, to be issued 20 May at the conclusion of COP15.

“The facts and figures of this publication all point in the same direction: an upward trajectory in the duration of droughts and the severity of impacts, not only affecting human societies but also the ecological systems upon which the survival of all life depends, including that of our own species.” says Ibrahim Thiaw, Executive Secretary of the UNCCD.

The report creates a compelling call to action. For example:

• Since 2000, the number and duration of droughts has risen 29%
• From 1970 to 2019, weather, climate and water hazards accounted for 50% of disasters and 45% of disaster-related deaths, mostly in developing countries
• Droughts represent 15% of natural disasters but took the largest human toll, approximately 650,000 deaths from 1970-2019
• From 1998 to 2017, droughts caused global economic losses of roughly USD 124 billion
• In 2022, more than 2.3 billion people face water stress; almost 160 million children are exposed to severe and prolonged droughts

Unless action is stepped up:

• By 2030, an estimated 700 million people will be at risk of being displaced by drought
• By 2040, an estimated one in four children will live in areas with extreme water shortages 
• By 2050, droughts may affect over three-quarters of the world’s population, and an estimated 4.8-5.7 billion people will live in areas that are water-scarce for at least one month each year, up from 3.6 billion today.  And up to 216 million people could be forced to migrate by 2050, largely due to drought in combination with other factors including water scarcity, declining crop productivity, sea-level rise, and overpopulation
• See below for additional report highlights

“We are at a crossroads,” says Mr. Thiaw.  “We need to steer toward the solutions rather than continuing with destructive actions, believing that marginal change can heal systemic failure.”

“One of the best, most comprehensive solutions is land restoration, which addresses many of the underlying factors of degraded water cycles and the loss of soil fertility. We must build and rebuild our landscapes better, mimicking nature wherever possible and creating functional ecological systems.”

Beyond restoration, he adds, is the need for a paradigm shift from ‘reactive’ and ‘crisis-based’ approaches to ‘proactive’ and ‘risk-based’ drought management approaches involving coordination, communication and cooperation, driven by sufficient finance and political will.  

Needed as well: 

• Sustainable and efficient agricultural management techniques that grow more food on less land and with less water
• Changes in our relationships with food, fodder and fiber, moving toward plant-based diets, and reducing or stopping the consumption of animals
• Concerted policy and partnerships at all levels
• Development and implementation of integrated drought action plans
• Set up effective early-warning systems that work across boundaries
• Deployment of new technologies such as satellite monitoring and artificial intelligence to guide decisions with greater precision
• Regular monitoring and reporting to ensure continuous improvement
• Mobilize sustainable finance to improve drought resilience at the local level
• Invest in soil health 
• Work together and include and mobilize farmers, local communities, businesses, consumers, investors, entrepreneurs and, above all, young people

The new UNCCD report notes that 128 countries have expressed willingness to achieve or exceed Land Degradation Neutrality. And nearly 70 countries participated in the UNCCD’s global drought initiative, which aims to shift from reactive approaches to drought to a proactive and risk-reducing approach. 

Mr. Thiaw underlined the importance of promoting public awareness about desertification and drought, and letting people know the problems can be effectively tackled “through ingenuity, commitment and solidarity.” 

“We all must live up to our responsibility to ensure the health of present and future generations, wholeheartedly and without delay.”

The COP15 decision on drought is expected to touch on five interrelated areas: 

• drought policies
• early warning, monitoring and assessment
• knowledge sharing and learning
• partnerships and coordination, and 
• drought finance

* * * * *

Additional highlights, Drought in Numbers, 2022

Drought around the world (1900-2022)

• More than 10 million people died due to major drought events in the past century, causing several hundred billion USD in economic losses worldwide.  And the numbers are rising 
• Severe drought affects Africa more than any other continent, with more than 300 events recorded in the past 100 years, accounting for 44% of the global total. More recently, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced the dramatic consequences of climate disasters becoming more frequent and intense
• In the past century, 45 major drought events occurred in Europe, affecting millions of people and resulting in more than USD 27.8 billion in economic losses. Today, an annual average of 15% of the land area and 17% of the population within the European Union is affected by drought
• In the U.S., crop failures and other economic losses due to drought have totaled several hundred billion USD over the last century – USD 249 billion alone since 1980
• Over the past century, the highest total number of humans affected by drought were in Asia 

Impacts on human society

• Over 1.4 billion people were affected by drought from 2000 to 2019. This makes drought the disaster affecting the second-highest number of people, after flooding. Africa suffered from drought more frequently than any other continent with 134 droughts, of which 70 occurred in East Africa
• The effect of severe droughts was estimated to have reduced India’s gross domestic product by 2-5% over the 10 years 1998 to 2017
• As a result of the Australian Millennium Drought, total agricultural productivity fell by 18% from 2002 to 2010
• Greater burdens and suffering are inflicted on women and girls in emerging and developing countries in terms of education levels, nutrition, health, sanitation, and safety 
• The burden of water collection – especially in drylands – falls disproportionately on women (72%) and girls (9%), who, in some cases, spend as much as 40% of their calorific intake carrying water

• Droughts have deep, widespread and underestimated impacts on societies, ecosystems, and economies, with only a portion of the actual losses accounted for
• A 2017 California case study showed that an increase of about 100 drought stories over two months was associated with a reduction of 11 to 18% in typical household water-use

Impacts on ecosystems

• The percentage of plants affected by drought has more than doubled in the last 40 years, with about 12 million hectares of land lost each year due to drought and desertification 
• Ecosystems progressively turn into carbon sources, especially during extreme drought events, detectable on five of six continents
• One-third of global carbon dioxide emissions is offset by the carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems, yet their capacity to sequester carbon is highly sensitive to drought events
• 14% of wetlands critical for migratory species, as listed by Ramsar, are located in drought-prone regions
• The megadrought in Australia contributed to ‘megafires’ in 2019-2020 resulting in the most dramatic loss of habitat for threatened species in postcolonial history; about 3 billion animals were killed or displaced in the Australian wildfires
• Drought-induced peatland fires in Indonesia resulted in decreasing biodiversity, including both the number of individuals as well as plant species
• Photosynthesis in European ecosystems was reduced by 30% during the summer drought of 2003, which resulted in an estimated net carbon release of 0.5 gigatons 
• 84% of terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by changing and intensifying wildfires
• During the first two decades of the 21st century, the Amazon experienced 3 widespread droughts, all of which triggered massive forest fires. Drought events are becoming increasingly common in the Amazon region due to land-use and climate change, which are interlinked. 
• If Amazonian deforestation continues unabated, 16% of the region’s remaining forests will likely burn by 2050

Predictable futures

• Climate change is expected to increase the risk of droughts in many vulnerable regions of the world, particularly those with rapid population growth, vulnerable populations and challenges with food security
• Within the next few decades, 129 countries will experience an increase in drought exposure mainly due to climate change alone – 23 primarily due to population growth and 38 mostly due to the interaction between climate change and population growth 
• If global warming reaches 3 degrees Celsius by 2100 as some predict, drought losses could be five times higher than they are today, with the largest increase in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic regions of Europe
• In Angola, more than 40% of livestock, a significant livelihood source accounting for 31.4% of the agricultural GDP, is currently exposed to droughts and expected to rise to 70% under projected climate conditions
• In the E.U. and U.K., annual losses from drought are currently estimated to be around EUR 9 billion and projected to rise to more than EUR 65 billion without meaningful climate action

Successful business cases

• By adopting drip irrigation, small-scale vegetable farmers in drought-prone provinces of VietNam (Binh Phouc), Cambodia (Prey Veng and Svay Reing), the Philippines (Lantapan and Bukidnon) and Indonesia (Reing and Bogor, West Java; Rembang, East Java) were able to increase water use efficiency by up to 43% and yield by 8-15%
• With the highest water efficiency rate in agriculture, reaching a 70-80% rate, drip irrigation has helped to solve the problem of water scarcity in Israel

Other highlights

• Information Technology and Indigenous Knowledge with Intelligence (ITIKI) is a drought early warning system that integrates Indigenous knowledge and drought forecasting to help small-scale farmers make more informed decisions, for example, on when and how to plant which crops. The support forecast models provides accuracy of 70-98% for lead-times of up to four years, as shown by trials in Mozambique, Kenya and South Africa
• Up to USD 1.4 trillion in production value can be generated globally by adopting sustainable land and water management practices 
• Approximately 4 million hectares of degraded land within “strict intervention zones” have been rehabilitated under the framework of the African Union–led restoration initiative known as the Great Green Wall – 4% of the Wall’s ultimate target of restoring 100 million hectares, helping to reduce the immanent threats of desertification and drought

* * * * *

Related: UNCCD’s flagship Global Land Outlook 2(GLO2) report, five years in development with 21 partner organizations, and with over 1,000 references, is the most comprehensive consolidation of information on the topic ever assembled. 

Released Apr. 27, it reported up to 40% of all ice-free land is already degraded, with dire consequences for climate, biodiversity and livelihoods.

* * * * *

Media coverage highlights:

Associated Press, United States: Jordan’s restoration efforts push back on degrading land, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/jordans-restoration-efforts-push-back-on-degrading-land/ar-AAWElVc

Agence France Presse, France: Restoring damaged land key to climate, biodiversity goals, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/restoring-damaged-land-key-to-climate-biodiversity-goals/ar-AAWEhFr

Daily Mail, United Kingdom: Humanity is ‘at a crossroads’ in the management of droughts; Number and duration has surged 29% since 2000 – and mitigation is needed urgently, UN warns https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10805363/Number-droughts-surged-29-2000-mitigation-needed-urgently-warns.html

BBC, United Kingdom: Nature loss: ‘Insatiable greed’ degrading land around the world, https://news.yahoo.com/nature-loss-insatiable-greed-degrading-152555489.html

The Independent, United Kingdom
World ‘at crossroads’ as droughts surge 29% in 20 years and are only getting worse, UN warns

ABC News, United States
Millions of lives at risk as famine stalks Horn of Africa

francetv info, France
Côte d’Ivoire : L’humanité à la croisée des chemins selon la COP15, Conférence sur la désertification et la dégradation des terres, qui se tient à Abidjan

The Hill, United States
Droughts increase 29 percent in a generation, only getting worse: UN

The Hindu, India
Explained | The UN report that highlights India’s vulnerability to drought

Full coverage summary, click here

News release in full, click here

• Up to 40 % of the planet’s land is degraded, directly affects half of humanity, threatens roughly half of global GDP (US$44 trillion);
• If business as usual continued through 2050, report projects additional degradation of an area almost the size of South America;
• Nations’ current pledge to restore 1 billion degraded hectares by 2030 requires $US 1.6 trillion this decade – a fraction of today’s annual $700 billion in fossil fuel and agricultural subsidies;
• As food prices soar amid rapid climate and other planetary changes, “crisis footing” needed to conserve, restore and use land sustainably;
• Most comprehensive report on topic ever, released shortly before UNCCD’s COP15 in Africa

The way land resources – soil, water and biodiversity – are currently mismanaged and misused threatens the health and continued survival of many species on Earth, including our own, warns a stark new report from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).  

It also points decision makers to hundreds of practical ways to effect local, national and regional land and ecosystem restoration. 

UNCCD’s evidence-based flagship Global Land Outlook 2 (GLO2) report, five years in development with 21 partner organizations, and with over 1,000 references, is the most comprehensive consolidation of information on the topic ever assembled. 

It offers an overview of unprecedented breadth and projects the planetary consequences of three scenarios through 2050: business as usual, restoration of 50 million square km of land, and restoration measures augmented by the conservation of natural areas important for specific ecosystem functions.

It also assesses the potential contributions of land restoration investments to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, poverty reduction, human health and other key sustainable development goals.

Warns the report: “At no other point in modern history has humanity faced such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks and hazards, interacting in a hyper-connected and rapidly changing world. We cannot afford to underestimate the scale and impact of these existential threats.”

“Conserving, restoring, and using our land resources sustainably is a global imperative, one that requires action on a crisis footing…Business as usual is not a viable pathway for our continued survival and prosperity.”

GLO2 offers hundreds of examples from around the world that demonstrate the potential of land restoration. It is being released before the UNCCD’s 15th session of the Conference of Parties to be held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire (COP15, 9-20 May). 

Says Ibrahim Thiaw, Executive Secretary of the UNCCD: “Modern agriculture has altered the face of the planet more than any other human activity. We need to urgently rethink our global food systems, which are responsible for 80% of deforestation, 70% of freshwater use, and the single greatest cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss.”

“Investing in large-scale land restoration is a powerful, cost-effective tool to combat desertification, soil erosion, and loss of agricultural production. As a finite resource and our most valuable natural asset, we cannot afford to continue taking land for granted.”

Future scenarios

The report predicts the outcomes by 2050 and risks involved under three scenarios:

• Baseline: Business as usual, continuing current trends in land and natural resource degradation, while demands for food, feed, fiber, and bioenergy continue to rise. Land management practices and climate change continue to cause widespread soil erosion, declining fertility and growth in yields, and the further loss of natural areas due to expanding agriculture.

By 2050:

• 16 million square kilometers show continued land degradation (almost the size of South America)
• A persistent, long-term decline in vegetative productivity is observed for 12-14% of agricultural, pasture and grazing land, and natural areas – with sub-Saharan Africa worst affected.
• An additional 69 gigatonnes of carbon is emitted from 2015 to 2050 due to land use change and soil degradation This represents 17% of current annual greenhouse gas emissions: soil organic carbon (32 gigatonnes), vegetation (27 gigatonnes), peatland degradation/conversion (10 gigatonnes).

• Restoration: Assumes the restoration of around 5 billion hectares (50 million square kilometers or 35% of the global land area) using measures such as agroforestry, grazing management, and assisted natural regeneration. (Current international pledges: 10 million square kilometers).

By 2050:

• Crop yields increase by 5-10% in most developing countries compared to the baseline. Improved soil health leads to higher crop yields, with the largest gains in the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America, and subSaharan Africa, limiting food price increases.
• Soil water holding capacity would increase by 4% in rainfed croplands.
• Carbon stocks rise by a net 17 gigatonnes between 2015 and 2050 due to gains in soil carbon and reduced emissions.
• Biodiversity continues to decline, but not as quickly, with 11% of biodiversity loss averted.

• Restoration and Protection: This scenario includes the restoration measures, augmented with protection measures of areas important for biodiversity, water regulation, conservation of soil and carbon stocks, and provision of critical ecosystem functions. 

By 2050: 

• An additional 4 million square kilometers of natural areas (the size of India and Pakistan); largest gains expected in South and Southeast Asia and Latin America. Protections would prevent land degradation by logging, burning, draining, or conversion.
• About a third of the biodiversity loss projected in the baseline would be prevented
• An additional 83 gigatonnes of carbon are stored compared to the baseline. Avoided emission and increased carbon storage would be equivalent to more than seven years of total current global emissions. 

See below for additional scenario projections and information

Other key points in the report include:

•  $US 44 trillion – roughly half the world’s annual economic output – is being put at risk by the loss of finite natural capital and nature’s services, which underpin human and environmental health by regulating climate, water, disease, pests, waste and air pollution, while providing numerous other benefits such as recreation and cultural benefits. 
• The economic returns of restoring land and reducing degradation, greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss could be as high as $US 125-140 trillion every year – up to 50% more than the $93 trillion global GDP in 2021
• Repurposing in the next decade just $US 1.6 trillion of the annual $700 billion in perverse subsidies given to the fossil fuel and agricultural industries would enable governments to meet current pledges to restore by 2030 some 1 billion degraded hectares – an area the size of the USA or China – including 250 million hectares of farmland
• Restoring land, soils, forests and other ecosystems would contribute more than one-third of the cost-effective climate change mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C while supporting biodiversity conservation, poverty reduction, human health and other key sustainable development goals
• Many traditional and modern regenerative food production practices can enable agriculture to pivot from being the primary cause of degradation to the principal catalyst for land and soil restoration
• Poor rural communities, smallholder farmers, women, youth, Indigenous Peoples, and other at-risk groups are disproportionately affected by desertification, land degradation, and drought. At the same time, traditional and local knowledge of Indigenous Peoples and local communities, proven land stewards, represent a vast store of human and social capital that must be respected and can be used to protect and restore natural capital
• Immediate financial support is needed to fund conservation and restoration in those developing countries with a greater share of the global distribution of intact, biodiverse, and carbon-rich ecosystems
• Restoration projects and programs tend to have long-term multiplier effects that strengthen rural economies and contribute to wider regional development. They generate jobs that cannot be outsourced, and investments stimulate demand that benefits local economies and communities
• Bringing together national action plans currently siloed under the UNCCD, Convention on Biological Diversity, and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change represents an immediate opportunity to align targets and commitments to implement land restoration, realize multiple benefits, and maximize returns on investment
• Land and resource rights, secured through enforceable laws and trusted institutions, can transform underperforming land assets into sustainable development opportunities, helping maintain equitable and cohesive societies
• Inclusive and responsible land governance, including tenure security, is an effective way to balance trade-offs and harness synergies that optimize restoration outcomes
• Grasslands and savannas are productive, biodiverse ecosystems that match forests both in their global extent and their need for protection and restoration. Equally important are wetlands, which are in long-term decline averaging losses at three times the rate of global forest loss in recent decades. Sustaining their capacity to absorb and store carbon is key to a climate-resilient future
• Intensive monocultures and the destruction of forests and other ecosystems for food and commodity production generate the bulk of carbon emissions associated with land use change
• If current land degradation trends continue, food supply disruptions, forced migration, rapid biodiversity loss and species extinctions will increase, accompanied by a higher risk of zoonotic diseases like COVID-19, declining human health, and land resource conflicts

GLO2 offers hundreds of good practice snapshots from around the world that illustrate context-specific measures to combat environmental degradation, restore land health, and improve living conditions.

Many regenerative agriculture practices have the potential to increase crop yields and improve their nutritional quality while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and drawing down carbon from the atmosphere, it says.

Examples include rewilding – reducing the human footprint to allow natural ecological processes to re-establish themselves – in the Greater Côa Valley in northern Portugal and the Iberá wetlands in Argentina; drought preparedness and risk reduction through national programmes in Mexico, the USA, and Brazil; sand and dust storm source mitigation in Iraq, China, and Kuwait; and gender-responsive land restoration in Mali, Nicauragua, and Jordan. There are also cases of integrated flood and drought strategies as well as forest landscape restoration using high-value crops.

Good practices can involve terrace and contour farming, conserving and restoring watersheds, and rainwater harvesting and storage. In addition to their economic benefits, these measures improve water retention and availability, prevent soil erosion and landslides, reduce flood risk, sequester carbon, and protect biodiversity habitat.

Africa’s Great Green Wall, meanwhile, which aims to restore the continent’s degraded landscapes, exemplifies “a regional restoration initiative that embraces an integrated approach with the promise of transforming the lives of millions of people,” says the report.

“The case studies from around the world showcased in GLO2 make clear that land restoration can be implemented in almost all settings and at many spatial scales, suggesting that every country can design and implement a tailored land restoration agenda to meet their development needs,” says Mr. Thiaw.

Many of the cases, he adds, underscore the value of education, training, and capacity building, not just for local communities, but also for government officials, land managers, and development planners. Linking local engagement to national policies and budgets will help ensure a responsive and well-aligned restoration agenda that delivers tangible outcomes for people, nature, and the climate.   

Preventing, halting, and reversing the degradation of ecosystems worldwide is the focus of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030), which calls for a broad and balanced response, addressing all ecosystems and their connectivity to reestablish a healthy landscape mosaic. These efforts are closely aligned with SDG target 15.3, which calls on countries to strive to achieve Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) by 2030.

“Hope remains as the decade of restoration has begun,” says Mr. Thiaw. “Now is the time to harness political will, innovation, and collective action to restore our land and soil for short-term recovery and long-term regeneration to ensure a more stable and resilient future.”

* * * * *

By the numbers, GLO2:

• 50%: Proportion of humanity affected by land degradation
• $US 7-30: benefits returned for every dollar invested in restoring degraded land
• Four: planetary boundaries (used to define a ‘safe operating space for humanity’) already exceeded: climate change, biodiversity loss, land use change, and geochemical cycles, breaches directly linked to human-induced desertification, land degradation, and drought
• 40%+: global land area occupied by agriculture
• 15%: proportion of the $US 700 billion paid out in commercial subsidies each year that positively impact natural capital, biodiversity, long-term job stability, or livelihoods
• 70%+: Tropical forest cleared for agriculture between 2013 and 2019 in violation of national laws or regulations
• 1%: Farms that control more than 70% of the world’s agricultural land
• 80%: Farms smaller than two hectares, representing 12% of total farmland
• 50%: Reduction of degraded land by 2040 pledged by G20 leaders in November 2020
• 115+: countries that had made quantitative, area-based commitments by the end of 2021, collectively a pledge to restore 1 billion hectares of farms, forests, and pastures
• 100+: Countries with plans for Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) by 2030: ‘frameworks for action’ by local and national authorities, civil society, and the private sector
• 130: Countries that reaffirmed in the Glasgow Leaders Declaration on Forests and Land Use (Nov. 2021) their respective individual and collective commitments under the three Rio Conventions – on Desertification (UNCCD), Biological Diversity (CBD), and Climate Change (UNFCCC), supported by unprecedented corporate and donor pledges. It also includes commitments to facilitate trade and development policies that avoid deforestation and land degradation, especially regarding internationally-traded agricultural commodities, such as beef, soy, palm oil, and timber.

* * * * * 

Comments

“The second edition of the Global Land Outlook is a must-read for the biodiversity community. The future of biodiversity is precarious. We have already degraded nearly 40 % and altered 70 % of the land. We cannot afford to have another “lost decade” for nature and need to act now for a future of life in harmony with nature. The GLO2 shows pathways, enablers and knowledge that we should apply to effectively implement the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.”

• Elizabeth Mrema, Executive Secretary, UN Convention on Biological Diversity

“Land is the operative link between biodiversity loss and climate change, and therefore must be the primary focus of any meaningful intervention to tackle these intertwined crises. Restoring degraded land and soil provides fertile ground on which to take immediate and concerted action.”  

• Andrea Meza Murillo, Deputy Executive Secretary, UNCCD

“As a global community we can no longer rely on incremental reforms within traditional planning and development frameworks to address the profound development and sustainability challenges we are facing in coming decades. A rapid transformation in land use and management practices that place people and nature at the center of our planning is needed, prioritizing job creation and building vital skill sets while giving voice to women and youth who have been traditionally marginalized from decision making.”

• Nichole Barger, report steering committee member, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, USA

“Just as COVID-19 vaccines were developed, tested, and rolled out at unprecedented speed and scale, so too must land restoration and other nature-based solutions be undertaken to prevent further environmental decline and ensure a healthy and prosperous future. We can reduce the risk of zoonotic disease transmission, increase food and water security, and improve human health and livelihoods by managing, expanding, and connecting protected and natural areas, improving soil, crop, and livestock health in food systems, and creating green and blue spaces in and around cities.”

• Barron Orr, Lead Scientist, UNCCD

“Restoring long term health and productivity in food landscapes is a top priority to ensure future sustainability. Much as an investor uses financial capital to generate profits, regenerating a forest or improving soil health provides returns in the form of a future supply of timber or food.” 

• Louise Baker, Director, Global Mechanism, UNCCD

“Indigenous Peoples and local communities are proven land stewards. The recognition of their rights and their involvement in the long-term management of their lands and of protected areas will be vital to success.”

• Miriam Medel, Chief, External Relations, Policy and Advocacy, UNCCD

“By designing an innovative, customized land restoration agenda that suits their needs, capacities, and circumstances, countries and communities can recover lost natural resources and better prepare for climate change and other looming threats.”

• Johns Muleso Kharika, Chief, Science, Technology and Innovation, UNCCD

* * * * * 

GLO2: Additional scenario projections

Baseline: Business as usual

By 2050:

• 16 million square kilometers show continued land degradation (almost the size of South America)
• A persistent, long-term decline in vegetative productivity is observed for 12-14% of agricultural, pasture and grazing land, and natural areas – with sub-Saharan Africa worst affected.
• An additional 69 gigatonnes of carbon is emitted from 2015 to 2050 due to land use change and soil degradation This represents 17% of current annual greenhouse gas emissions: soil organic carbon (32 gigatonnes), vegetation (27 gigatonnes), peatland degradation/conversion (10 gigatonnes).
• A slowing in the growth of agricultural yields While agricultural yields are still projected to rise in all regions, land degradation will curb increases, especially in the Middle East, North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America. The loss of soil organic carbon and the soil’s ability to hold water and nutrients, such as phosphorus or nitrogen, will be primarily responsible for this slowing, while the associated risks of drought and water scarcity are expected to increase.
• The demand for food, expected to rise by 45% between 2015 and 2050, will have to be met by further intensification and expansion of agricultural land, resulting in the further loss of 3 million square kilometers of natural areas (the size of India), mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

Restoration Scenario

Assumes that land restoration done on a massive scale – across a potential 50 million square kilometers (5 billion hectares) with measures such as:

• Conservation agriculture (low- or no-till farming)
• Agroforestry and silvopasture (combining trees with crops, livestock, or both)
• Improved grazing management and grassland rehabilitation
• Forest plantations
• Assisted natural regeneration
• Cross-slope barriers to prevent soil erosion

This scenario envisions these measures applied to roughly 16 million square kilometers of cropland, 22 million of grazing land, and 14 million of natural areas. Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are estimated to have the largest areas with the potential for land restoration. 

Compared to the baseline scenario, by 2050:

• Crop yields increase by 5-10% in most developing countries compared to the baseline Improved soil health leads to higher crop yields, with the largest gains in the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America, and subSaharan Africa, limiting food price increases.
• Soil water holding capacity would increase by 4% in rainfed croplands.
• Carbon stocks rise by a net 17 gigatonnes between 2015 and 2050 due to gains in soil carbon and reduced emissions. This is the balance of a net increase in soil organic carbon, increased carbon in agroforestry, and a continued loss of vegetation carbon due to land conversion. It does not account for the potential carbon storage gains above ground from forest restoration. Soil carbon stocks would be 55 gigatonnes larger in 2050 compared to the baseline, with the largest gains in Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Latin America, while the biggest losses would be avoided in sub-Saharan Africa.
• Slowed biodiversity decline and loss of natural areas. Globally, the extent of natural areas continues to decline due to the expansion of agricultural and urban areas, except in Latin America where natural areas are projected to increase by 3%. Biodiversity would continue to decline, but not as quickly, with 11% of biodiversity loss averted.

Restoration and protection scenario, projections

This scenario includes the restoration measures, augmented with protection measures expanded to cover close to half of the Earth’s land surface by 2050 – a threefold increase on the current coverage. These protected areas are important for biodiversity, water regulation, conservation of soil and carbon stocks, and provision of critical ecosystem functions. 

However, significantly increasing the extent of protected land would limit the expansion of agriculture. Under this constraint, current yields would have to be 9% higher by 2050 than in the baseline scenario to meet expected demand. Nonetheless, food prices are projected to increase, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, where a scarcity of agricultural land is already impacting food security.

Under this scenario, most of the new protected areas would have to be in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

When compared to the baseline, the restoration and protection scenario would mean, by 2050:

• An additional 4 million square kilometers of natural areas (the size of India and Pakistan). With the largest gains expected in South and Southeast Asia and Latin America, protected areas would prevent land degradation by logging, burning, draining, or conversion.
• While biodiversity would continue to decline, about a third of the loss projected in the baseline would be prevented under restoration and protection measures.
• An additional 83 gigatonnes are stored compared to the baseline. Avoided emission and increased carbon storage would be equivalent to more than seven years of total current global emissions. 

Further reading: 

The global potential for land restoration: Scenarios for the Global Land Outlook 2 

https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/the-global-potential-for-land-restoration-scenarios-for-the-global-landoutlook-2

Restoration Commitments and Scenarios Goals and Commitments for the Restoration Decade: A global overview of countries’ restoration commitments under the Rio Conventions and other pledges

https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/goals-and-commitments-for-the-restoration-decade

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Notes to editors

Land degradation: The persistent or long-term loss of land-based natural capital. It gives rise to poverty, hunger, and environmental pollution, while making communities more vulnerable to disease and disasters like drought, floods, or wildfires. This is especially true in the drylands that cover more than 45% of the Earth’s land surface, home to one in three people.

Land restoration: A continuum of sustainable land and water management practices that can be applied to conserve or ‘rewild’ natural areas, ‘up-scale’ nature-positive food production in rural landscapes, and ‘green’ urban areas, infrastructure, and supply chains.  Regenerative land use practices employed to boost soil health or recharge groundwater also enhance our ability to cope with drought, floods, wildfires, and sand and dust storms.

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The formal launch of GLO2 will take place Tuesday 10 May during the high-level segment of the UNCCD’s 15th Conference of Parties (COP15, 9-20 May), Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.  

Two new regional reports, covering Central and Eastern Europe and Southern Africa, will also be released at COP15.

COP15 programme, registration and other media information: https://www.unccd.int/cop15

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About 

The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD.int)

UNCCD is the global vision and voice for land. We unite governments, scientists, policymakers, private sector and communities around a shared vision and global action to restore and manage the world’s land for the sustainability of humanity and the planet. Much more than an international treaty signed by 197 parties, UNCCD is a multilateral commitment to mitigating today’s impacts of land degradation and advancing tomorrow’s land stewardship in order to provide food, water, shelter and economic opportunity to all people in an equitable and inclusive manner. .

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Media coverage highlights

878 articles (captured here) at 624 different news sites across 72 countries in 25 languages

Newswires

The Associated Press (via MSN.com, United States, 211,809,090 potential impressions)

Jordan’s restoration efforts push back on degrading land https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/jordans-restoration-efforts-push-back-on-degrading-land/ar-AAWElVc

Associated Press Television Network here

Agence France Presse, France (via MSN.com, 211,809,090)

1) Restoring damaged land key to climate, biodiversity goals https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/restoring-damaged-land-key-to-climate-biodiversity-goals/ar-AAWEhFr 

2) Earth’s degraded land at ‘breaking point’, warns UN expert (Q&A with Ibrahim, via Deccan Herald, India, 5,666,729) https://www.deccanherald.com/science-and-environment/earths-degraded-land-at-breaking-point-warns-un-expert-1104424.html

Reuters, via Reuters United States (58,647,126)

U.N. report highlights land use trends and costs of degradation https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/un-report-highlights-land-use-trends-costs-degradation-2022-04-27/

Thomson Reuters Foundation, via Daily Mail, United Kingdom (95,023,695)

EXPLAINER-Here’s how to reverse Africa’s land degradation https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-10759331/EXPLAINER-Heres-reverse-Africas-land-degradation.html

Agencia EFE, Spain (via Yahoo! Noticias en Español, United States, 346,440)La ONU alerta de una degradación crónica del suelo terrestre https://es-us.noticias.yahoo.com/onu-alerta-degradaci%C3%B3n-cr%C3%B3nica-suelo-133548870.html

EFE, French service (3,457,494)La ONU alerta de una degradación crónica del suelo terrestre https://www.efe.com/efe/america/sociedad/la-onu-alerta-de-una-degradacion-cronica-del-suelo-terrestre/20000013-4793011

IndoAsian News Service, India, (via ProKerala, India, 11,703,301) Up to 40% of planet’s land degraded: UN https://www.prokerala.com/news/articles/a1272626.html

Deutsche Presse Agentur, Germany (via TAZ, Germany, 8,092,677)UN-Bericht zur Wüstenbildung: Der Erde gehen die Böden aus https://taz.de/UN-Bericht-zur-Wuestenbildung/!5847354/

News sites

The Independent, United Kingdom (55,838,979)

World must ‘urgently rethink global food systems’ to avoid loss of land the size of South America, UN report warns https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/soil-biodiversity-land-degradation-un-b2066656.html

BBC News, via Yahoo! News, United States (39,438,604)Nature loss: ‘Insatiable greed’ degrading land around the world https://www.yahoo.com/news/nature-loss-insatiable-greed-degrading-152555489.html

BBC World Service Radio (Newsday) Five minutes, starts at ~44:20 minutes https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yf8gcghvp5s

El Español, Spain (30,880,112), La ONU alerta de una crisis de desertificación: se prevé que se seque un área del tamaño de América del Sur https://www.elespanol.com/enclave-ods/noticias/20220427/onu-alerta-crisis-desertificacion-tamano-america-sur/668183384_0.html

Le Monde, France (22,197,112), La dégradation des terres affecte la moitié de la population mondiale https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2022/04/27/la-degradation-des-terres-affecte-la-moitie-de-la-population-mondiale_6123905_3244.html

ZEIT online, Germany (13,590,748), Klimawandel: UN warnen vor existenziellen Bedrohungen durch Versteppung https://www.zeit.de/wissen/umwelt/2022-04/klimawandel-vereinte-nationen-versteppung-wueste-klimaschutz

ORF Online, Austria (10,268,557)
Versteppung ist existenzielle Bedrohung https://science.orf.at/stories/3212803/

Science, United States (7,688,810)
Global land degradation serious, U.N. report finds, but restoration offers hope https://www.science.org/content/article/global-land-degradation-serious-u-n-report-finds-restoration-offers-hope

Libération, France (6,011,368), Désertification : les scénarios pour restaurer et protéger les terres  https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/agriculture/desertification-les-scenarios-pour-restaurer-et-proteger-les-terres-20220427_E4RV7UVH75GEXP4M3KGNECSTHQ

Tag 24, Germany (5,756,363)Existenz-Gefahr für die Menschheit: Was uns laut UN-Bericht gefährlich wird!  https://www.tag24.de/nachrichten/klima/klimawandel/existenz-gefahr-fuer-die-menschheit-was-uns-laut-un-bericht-gefaehrlich-wird-2431041

The Guardian, United Kingdom (3,527,430), UN says up to 40% of world’s land now degraded https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/27/united-nations-40-per-cent-planet-land-degraded

News release in full, click here