IPBES: Two reports light ways to sustainability

IPBES, Bonn

1) Nexus Assessment Report: Tackle together five interlinked global crises in biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change

>70 response options assessed for maximum co-benefits across cascading or compounding crises; Unaccounted-for costs of current approaches estimated to be at least US$10-25 trillion per year

Environmental, social and economic crises – such as biodiversity loss, water and food insecurity, health risks and climate change – are all interconnected. They interact, cascade and compound each other in ways that make separate efforts to address them ineffective and counterproductive. 

A landmark new report was launched today by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The Assessment Report on the Interlinkages Among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health – known as the Nexus Report – offers decision-makers around the world the most ambitious scientific assessment ever undertaken of these complex interconnections and explores more than five dozen specific response options to maximize co-benefits across five ‘nexus elements’: biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change.

Approved on Monday by the 11^th session of the IPBES Plenary, composed of representatives of the 147 Governments that are members of IPBES, the report is the product of three years of work by 165 leading international experts from 57 countries from all regions of the world. It finds that existing actions to address these challenges fail to tackle the complexity of interlinked problems and result in inconsistent governance. 

“We have to move decisions and actions beyond single issue silos to better manage, govern and improve the impact of actions in one nexus element on other elements,” said Prof. Paula Harrison (United Kingdom), co-chair of the Assessment with Prof. Pamela McElwee (USA). “Take for example the health challenge of schistosomiasis (also known as bilharzia) – a parasitic disease that can cause life-long ill health and which affects more than 200 million people worldwide – especially in Africa. Treated only as a health challenge – usually through medication – the problem often recurs as people are reinfected. An innovative project in rural Senegal took a different approach – reducing water pollution and removing invasive water plants to reduce the habitat for the snails that host the parasitic worms that carry the disease – resulting in a 32% reduction in infections in children, improved access to freshwater and new revenue for the local communities.” 

“The best way to bridge single issue silos is through integrated and adaptive decision-making. ‘Nexus approaches’ offer policies and actions that are more coherent and coordinated – moving us towards the transformative change needed to meet our development and sustainability goals,” said Prof. McElwee.

Past and Current Challenges

The report states that biodiversity – the richness and variety of all life on Earth – is declining at every level from global to local, and across every region. These ongoing declines in nature, largely as a result of human activity, including climate change, have direct and dire impacts on food security and nutrition, water quality and availability, health and wellbeing outcomes, resilience to climate change and almost all of nature’s other contributions to people.

Building on previous IPBES reports, in particular the 2022 Values Assessment Report and the 2019 Global Assessment Report, which identified the most important direct drivers of biodiversity loss, including land- and sea-use change, unsustainable exploitation, invasive alien species and pollution, the Nexus Report further underscores how indirect socioeconomic drivers, such as increasing waste, overconsumption and population growth, intensify the direct drivers – worsening impacts on all parts of the nexus. The majority of 12 assessed indicators across these indirect drivers – such as GDP, population levels and overall food supply, have all increased or accelerated since 2001. 

“Efforts of Governments and other stakeholders have often failed to take into account indirect drivers and their impact on interactions between nexus elements because they remain fragmented, with many institutions working in isolation – often resulting in conflicting objectives, inefficiencies and negative incentives, leading to unintended consequences,” said Prof. Harrison.

The report highlights that more than half of global gross domestic product – more than $50 trillion of annual economic activity around the world – is moderately to highly dependent on nature. “But current decision making has prioritized short-term financial returns while ignoring costs to nature, and failed to hold actors to account for negative economic pressures on the natural world. It is estimated that the unaccounted-for costs of current approaches to economic activity – reflecting impacts on biodiversity, water, health and climate change, including from food production – are at least $10-25 trillion per year,” said Prof. McElwee.

The existence of such unaccounted-for costs, alongside direct public subsidies to economic activities that have negative impacts on biodiversity (approximately $1.7 trillion per year), enhances private financial incentives to invest in economic activities that cause direct damage to nature (approximately $5.3 trillion per year), in spite of growing evidence of biophysical risks to economic progress and financial stability.

Delaying the action needed to meet policy goals will also increase the costs of delivering it. Delayed action on biodiversity goals, for example, could as much as double costs – also increasing the probability of irreplaceable losses such as species extinctions. Delayed action on climate change adds at least $500 billion per year in additional costs for meeting policy targets. 

Unequal Impacts and Need for Inclusive Decision-Making

“Another key message from the report is that the increasingly negative effects of intertwined global crises have very unequal impacts, disproportionately affecting some more than others,” said Prof. Harrison. 

More than half of the world’s population is living in areas experiencing the highest impacts from declines in biodiversity, water availability and quality and food security, and increases in health risks and negative effects of climate change. These burdens especially affect developing countries, including small island developing states, Indigenous Peoples and local communities, as well as those in vulnerable situations in higher-income countries. 41% of people live in areas that saw extremely strong declines in biodiversity between 2000 and 2010, 9% in areas that have experienced very high health burdens and 5% in areas with high levels of malnutrition.

Some efforts – such as research and innovation, education and environmental regulations – have been partially successful in improving trends across nexus elements, but the report finds these are unlikely to succeed without addressing interlinkages more fully and tackling indirect drivers like trade and consumption. Decision-making that is more inclusive, with a particular focus on equity, can help ensure those most affected are included in solutions, in addition to larger economic and financial reforms.

Future Scenarios

The report also examines future challenges – assessing 186 different scenarios from 52 separate studies, which project interactions between three or more of the nexus elements, mostly covering the periods up to 2050 and 2100.

A key message from this analysis is that if current “business as usual” trends in direct and indirect drivers of change continue, the outcomes will be extremely poor for biodiversity, water quality and human health – with worsening climate change and increasing challenges to meet global policy goals. 

Similarly, a focus on trying to maximize the outcomes for only one part of the nexus in isolation will likely result in negative outcomes for the other nexus elements. For example, a ‘food first’ approach prioritizes food production with positive benefits on nutritional health, arising from unsustainable intensification of production and increased per capita consumption. This has negative impacts on biodiversity, water and climate change. An exclusive focus on climate change can result in negative outcomes for biodiversity and food, reflecting competition for land. Weak environmental regulation, made worse by delays, results in worsening impacts for biodiversity, food, human health and climate change. 

“Future scenarios do exist that have positive outcomes for people and nature by providing co-benefits across the nexus elements,” said Prof Harrison. “The future scenarios with the widest nexus benefits are those with actions that focus on sustainable production and consumption in combination with conserving and restoring ecosystems, reducing pollution, and mitigating and adapting to climate change.”

An important aim of IPBES work is to provide the science and evidence needed to support achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the Paris Agreement on climate change. The Nexus Report shows that scenarios focusing on synergies among biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change have the best likely outcomes for the SDGs – and that focusing on addressing the challenges in just one sector – such as food, biodiversity or climate change in isolation – seriously limits the chances of meeting other goals.

Response Options

The report shows that there are a significant number of responses – on a policy, political and community level – currently available to sustainably manage across biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change, some of which are also low cost. 

The authors present more than 70 of these ‘response options’ to help manage the nexus elements synergistically, representing 10 broad categories of action. Examples of these response options that have broadly positive impacts across nexus elements are: restoring carbon-rich ecosystems such as forests, soils, mangroves; managing biodiversity to reduce risk of diseases spreading from animals to humans; improving integrated landscape and seascape management; urban nature-based solutions; sustainable healthy diets; and supporting Indigenous food systems.

Other response options are important, but may not have as many synergistic benefits for all nexus elements. Some, such as offshore wind power and dams, may have negative impacts on other nexus elements if not carefully implemented.

The more than 70 response options presented in the report, taken together, support the achievement of all 17 SDGs, all 23 targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the long-term goals for climate change mitigation and adaptation of the Paris Agreement. Twenty four of the response options advance more than five SDGs and more than five of the Global Biodiversity Framework targets. 

Implementing response options together or in sequence can further improve their positive impacts and achieve cost savings. Ensuring inclusive participation, such as including Indigenous Peoples and local communities in the co-design, governance and implementation of response options, can also increase the benefits and equity of these measures. 

“Some good examples include marine protected areas that have included communities in management and decision-making,” said Prof. McElwee. “These have led to increases in biodiversity, greater abundance of fish to feed people and improved incomes for local communities and often increased tourism revenues as well.”

Nexus Governance Approaches & Action

Speaking about what will be needed to advance effective responses, policies and actions, Prof. McElwee said: “Our current governance structures and approaches are not responsive enough to meet the interconnected challenges that result from the accelerated speed and scale of environmental change and rising inequalities. Fragmented and siloed institutions, as well as short-term, contradictory and non-inclusive policies have significant potential to put achievement of the global development and sustainability targets at risk. This can be addressed by moving towards ‘nexus governance approaches’: more integrated, inclusive, equitable, coordinated and adaptive approaches.”

The report offers a series of eight specific and deliberative steps to help policymakers, communities, civil society and other stakeholders identify problems and shared values in order to work together towards solutions for just and sustainable futures – presented as a graphical road map for nexus action.

Speaking about the immediate relevance and value of the report, Dr. David Obura, Chair of IPBES said: “The past two months have seen three separate major global negotiations – COP16 of both the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Convention to Combat Desertification, as well as COP29 of the climate Convention. Together with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and SDGs, it is clear that the Governments of the world are working harder than ever before to address the global challenges – grounded in the environmental crises – that confront us all. The Nexus Report helps to better inform all of these actions, policies and decisions, particularly in addressing their interlinkages, and the greater benefits achieved by devising integrated solutions at all scales. I would like to thank and congratulate the co-chairs, authors and everyone who has contributed to this tremendously complex and important assessment process.”

* * * * *

By the Numbers – Key Statistics and Thematic Findings from the Report

• 2-6%: Biodiversity decline per decade across all assessed indicators for the last 30-50 years
• >50%: Global population living in areas experiencing highest impacts from declines in biodiversity, water availability and quality and food security, and increases in health risks and negative effects of climate change
• ~$58 trillion: Value in 2023 of global annual economic activity generated in sectors moderately to highly dependent on nature (i.e. more than 50% of global GDP)
• Up to $25 trillion: Annual ‘external’ costs (not considered as part of decision-making) across the fossil fuel, agriculture and fisheries sectors, reflecting the negative impacts of production and consumption in these sectors on biodiversity, climate change, water, and health
• $5.3 trillion: Annual private-sector financial flows directly damaging to biodiversity
• $1.7 trillion: Annual public subsidies incentivizing damage to biodiversity, distorting trade and increasing pressure on natural resources
• $100 billion-$300 billion: Annual value of illegal resource extraction activities including in the wildlife, timber and fish trades
• Up to $200 billion: Annual expenditure aimed at improving the status of biodiversity
• Up to $1 trillion: Estimated annual financing gap to meet global resource needs for biodiversity
• At least $4 trillion: Estimated annual financing gap to meet the SDGs in addition to the biodiversity funding gap
• Economic impacts of biodiversity loss are expected to affect developing countries, where there are also higher barriers to mobilizing sustainable financial flows (exacerbated in some cases by burdens of high debt)
• 43%: Proportion of total biodiversity-financing flows that also directly include benefits for another nexus element
• 81%: Proportion of funding for biodiversity that comes from public institutions
• $42 billion: Current funding for payments for ecosystem services, which often fund activities for both biodiversity and another nexus element like water
• €47 million: Investment by the city of Paris to help farmers transition to ecological intensification, resulting in reduced pollution and cleaner water
• 30%: Proportion of world’s land, waters and seas to be protected by 2030 under target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework – supported by the scenario analysis of the assessment and can provide nexus-wide benefits if effectively managed for nature and people
• Reduction of plastics has led to increased water quality and wildlife protection, fewer floods and reductions in incidence of associated water-borne diseases
• Urban nature-based solutions that increase urban green and blue space help to manage heat island effects, improve water quality and availability and reduce air pollution, as well as reducing allergens and zoonotic disease risk
• Response options that are implemented in more equitable ways also provide greater potential benefits across the nexus elements, indicating that effectiveness and equity often are not trade-offs but go hand-in-hand
• Knowledge and practices of Indigenous Peoples and local communities can help successfully conserve biodiversity and sustainably manage other nexus elements. For example, strong reductions in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon were achieved after formalizing and enforcing tenure rights to territories of Indigenous Peoples and local communities

Water

• Freshwater biodiversity is being lost faster than terrestrial biodiversity. Unsustainable freshwater withdrawal, wetland degradation and forest loss have decreased water quality and climate change resilience in many areas of the world, impacting biodiversity, water and food availability with consequences for human, plant and animal
• Many marine systems globally have been overharvested and degraded through human activities
• The water cycle is regulated by ecosystem and geophysical processes – supporting biodiversity and providing many contributions that are essential to human health and well-being
• Forest cover loss decreases water regulation, quality and availability, resulting in increasing water treatment costs and negative health outcomes
• ~80%: Proportion of humanity’s demand for freshwater used to meet food production needs
• 75%: Proportion of global population in 2005 dependent on forests for accessible freshwater
• At least 50: Diseases attributable to poor water supply, water quality and sanitation
• ~33%: Reef-building coral species at high risk of extinction
• Nearly 1 billion: people living within 100km of a coral reef and who benefit from them in terms of food, medicine, protection from coastal storms and erosion, tourism and recreation and livelihoods
• Transboundary water cooperation facilitates the sustainable management of resources at the basin scale, and better collaboration between sectors and stakeholders. Improving groundwater governance through cooperation across scales, including support for community water management, increases benefits across the nexus elements, while integrated water infrastructure and water-sensitive urban infrastructure take advantage of natural systems to reduce risks from floods and other hazards, deliver benefits for food production and contribute to climate change mitigation

Food

• Increases in food production have improved health through greater caloric intake, but unsustainable agricultural practices have also resulted in loss of biodiversity, unsustainable water usage, reduced food diversity and quality, and increased pollution and greenhouse gas emissions
• Negative impacts on the nexus elements from food systems have decreased biodiversity and consequently many of nature’s contributions to people, especially through diminished regulating contributions (e.g., regulation of water quality and climate); increased non-communicable disease risks; emerging infectious diseases; and global temperatures and other climatic changes
• Global agrobiodiversity is declining, including genetic resources for food and agriculture, with impacts on ecosystem functioning, food system resilience, food security and nutrition, as well as on social (employment and health) and economic (income and productivity) systems
• Global malnutrition and inequalities in food security persist despite a decline in the total number of undernourished people –the cost of healthy diets can be high, particularly in developing countries, and consequently inaccessible to many
• Unsustainable exploitation and pollution of freshwater and marine ecosystems impact millions of people, including those highly dependent on protein-rich food obtained from these ecosystems, such as Indigenous Peoples and local communities
• 42%: Proportion of global population in 2021 unable to afford healthy diets, 86% for low-income and 70% for lower-middle income countries
• 80%: Proportion of total undernourished people who live in developing countries, primarily living in rural areas
• >800 million: People affected by food insecurity in Asia and Africa
• Nearly 3 million: Deaths in 2017 associated with diets low in whole grains
• Adopting sustainable agricultural practices (such as improving nitrogen use efficiency, integrated pest management, agroecology, agroforestry and sustainable intensification, reductions in food losses and waste, adoption of novel food/feed sources and sustainable healthy diets would enable the current agricultural land area to meet the calorific and nutritional needs of future generations in the medium to long term
• 30%: Increase in cereal yields, as well as enhancing soil health and biodiversity in some parts of south-central Niger through farmer-managed natural regeneration of 5 million hectares with native trees and agroforestry systems
• Indigenous food systems, grounded in reciprocal worldviews and values regarding people and nature in balance and in the sustainable use of biodiversity are supplying sustainable and healthy foods while also contributing to biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation and adaptation

Health

• Greater life expectancy and childhood survival are partly a result of increased production and access to food. Worsening outcomes from several communicable and non-communicable diseases are linked to biodiversity loss, unhealthy diets, lack of clean water, pollution and climate change among other causes
• Unsustainable farming systems contribute to biodiversity loss, excessive water use, pollution and climate change
• 20: Years of average life expectancy difference between regions
• 10x: Extent to which child mortality rates are higher in least-developed-countries compared to high-income countries
• 11 million: Adult deaths in 2017 (and 255 million disability-adjusted life years among adults) accounted for by unhealthy diets
• 9 million: Premature deaths in 2019 (16% of all deaths) estimated to have been caused by increased air and water pollution
• 50%: Proportion of emerging and reemerging infectious disease events driven by changes in land use, agricultural practices and activities that encroach on natural habitats and lead to increased contact between wildlife, domestic animals and humans – highlighting the interconnections between ecosystem, animal and human health
• The One Health approach supports integrating food system and biodiversity management with local health services to reduce risks from zoonotic pathogen emergence and spillover at source, malnutrition and other risks such as to wildlife health, food production and ecosystems. For example, Brazil’s successful Unified Health System joins human health professionals, veterinarians and environmental health practitioners working together with farmers and policymakers to jointly design holistic practices aimed at addressing social and environmental determinants of health and contributing to preventing pathogen emergence and disease outbreaks for both people and animals

Climate Change

• Climate change affects biodiversity, water, food and health through changes in average climatic conditions and the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events
• Climate change impacts terrestrial food production with consequences for human health and well-being including exacerbating food insecurity for vulnerable populations 
• Intensifying climate change will stress water resources and undermine agricultural productivity and food productivity in food production systems, cause increased mortality from heat waves and expand the epidemic belt for vector-borne diseases towards higher latitudes and altitudes
• Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, flooding, droughts and wildfires result in direct health impacts and increased dispersal of pathogens and pollutants (e.g., untreated wastewater, fertilizers, pesticides, sediments and air pollutants) 
• Under current trends, climate change leads to irreversible loss of marine biodiversity, such as coral reefs, and negative effects on coastal fisheries; both provide diets that prevent malnutrition, stunted child growth and other conditions
• Exposure to risks from climate change is projected to double between the 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels and double again between a 2°C and 3°C world, across multiple sectors 
• 21-37%: Proportion of total greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the global food system
• 58%: Proportion of known human infectious diseases likely to worsen due to climate change
• 12,000-19,000: Heat-related child deaths in Africa between 2011 and 2020 to which climate change directly contributed
• 62,000: Heat-related deaths in Europe in 2022
• 1,500: Heat-related deaths in the United States in 2023
• 12,000: Disasters caused in the last 50 years by extreme weather-, climate and water-related events, leading to 2 million human deaths (90% in low- and lower-middle-income countries) and $4.3 trillion in total costs
• >50%: Proportion of carbon sequestration in the ocean attributable to coastal ecosystems
• >$500 billion: Minimum additional annual costs for delivering adaptation and mitigation to meet climate change goals for each year of additional delay
• Restoration contributes to climate change adaptation and socio-ecological resilience and can also contribute to climate change mitigation when it targets carbon storage in forests, peatlands, seagrass beds, salt marshes and marine and coastal ecosystems that contribute to carbon sequestration

IPBES Partner Comments

“Biodiversity loss, water scarcity, food security, human health, and climate change are not isolated issues. They are indivisible, interrelated and interdependent. As they are intricately linked when one falters, the others follow. 

Despite these challenges being interconnected, our responses are far too often siloed, fixing one problem while creating another. 

The IPBES Nexus Assessment is the first comprehensive global assessment that looks at the interlinkages between these crises and identifies solutions. 

As governments continue work toward achieving commitments made in the Sustainable Development Goals, the Global Biodiversity Framework, and the Paris Agreement, this report comes at a critical moment to support countries achieve our global goals.”

• Inger Andersen, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

“Biodiversity is vital to the efforts to meet humanity’s growing need for food, feed, fibre and fuel, while protecting the planet for future generations. We need to produce more with less, through the Four Betters: better production, better nutrition, a better environment and a better life – leaving no one behind. 

The IPBES assessments help us to understand the interlinkages between biodiversity, food, and livelihoods, as well as the urgent need to address biodiversity loss with solutions that enhance sustainability and resilience. These assessments clearly highlight the essential role of agrifood system solutions in meeting the Paris Agreement, the Global Biodiversity Framework, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – especially SDG 2 to end hunger. 

FAO’s mandate aligns closely with the 2050 vision for biodiversity, promoting sustainable agrifood systems that ensure food security – by ensuring food availability, food accessibility and food affordability – with safe, sufficient and nutritious food for all, while conserving biodiversity and addressing the impacts of the climate crisis. 

With decades of experience in technical and policy support and guided by its Strategy on Mainstreaming Biodiversity Across Agricultural Sectors, FAO is well-positioned to lead the transition towards more sustainable agrifood systems. By leveraging our expertise, resources, and global network, we can help implement the assessments’ recommendations, ensuring agrifood systems contribute positively to biodiversity conservation, sustainable use, and climate action. 

Together, we can build a future where agrifood systems support sustainability and resilience, benefiting both people and the planet. Let us seize this opportunity to create a lasting impact.”

• QU Dongyu, Director-General, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

“Our ecological and planetary systems are deeply interconnected with all life on Earth, including humanity. Yet, decisions to address threats to biodiversity, water, food, health, and climate, are too often made in isolation, leading to misalignment, unplanned trade-offs, or unintended consequences at best — and negative outcomes at worst.   

By illuminating the intersections between environmental, social, and economic crises, the IPBES Nexus Assessment exposes both the limitations of isolated action — and the opportunities and acceleration possible from better aligning our global efforts. 

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) welcomes the insights of this assessment as we work with the United Nations (UN) family and our many partners to drive systemic, rather than linear shifts. This is essential to enabling the scale and urgency of action needed to protect and restore our planet’s irreplaceable ecosystems and biodiversity.”

• Achim Steiner, Administrator, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

“The environmental and social crises our planet is facing are interconnected and cannot be addressed in isolation. It is therefore essential to fully understand the interlinkages that exist between biodiversity, water and food systems, health and well-being, climate disruption and global energy systems. 

As an institutional partner of IPBES, UNESCO is proud to have supported this new assessment report, which demonstrates that we can – and must – move beyond a siloed approach. We must design holistic strategies to manage environmental and social challenges while accounting for trade-offs and enhancing mutual benefits in our global system. 

The report underscores the need for diverse knowledge systems, values and governance approaches to effectively tackle today’s interconnected global challenges. UNESCO takes pride in having supported the work on indigenous and local knowledge in this assessment, which illustrates the importance of these knowledge systems in conceptualizing, understanding and managing the complex relationships between people and nature. 

By recognizing and integrating diverse perspectives, the assessment report will be invaluable for policymakers and decision makers at all levels. UNESCO stands ready to support efforts towards holistic approaches to governance and action.” 

• Audrey Azoulay, Director-General, United Nations Educational, Scientific & Cultural Organisation (UNESCO)

“One of the most challenging aspects of policymaking is to navigate complexity while avoiding unintended negative consequences. Actions to address global challenges affecting biodiversity, water, food, health and the climate system are often taken without sufficient regard to the interlinkages between them. Such actions inevitably result in shortcomings, if not adverse impacts on biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. 

By shedding light on the interactions, trade-offs and opportunities inherent to addressing these intertwined challenges, the IPBES Nexus Report lays a strong foundation for evidence-based decisions that enhance biodiversity conservation and restoration, while also supporting food and water security, public health and climate resilience.

The IPBES Nexus Assessment Report makes an invaluable contribution to efforts by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in achieving the targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) by 2030. 

I thank and congratulate the IPBES experts and members for the tremendous amount of work, expertise and innovation that went into the preparation of the Nexus Report. I look forward to seeing this asset being widely used by Parties to the CBD, Stakeholders and Partners supporting the implementation of the KMGBF.”

• Astrid Schomaker, Executive Secretary, Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

---

2) Transformative Change Assessment Report news release

Planet in Peril: IPBES Report Reveals Options to Achieve Urgently Needed Transformative Change to Halt Biodiversity Collapse

Focuses on the Underlying Causes of the Biodiversity Crisis & Options for a Just and Sustainable World

Acting Immediately Could Generate $10 Trillion in Business Opportunity Value and Support 395 Million Jobs by 2030

Issued by the IPBES Secretariat on 18 December 2024

Windhoek, Namibia. Deep, fundamental shifts in how people view and interact with the natural world are urgently needed to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and safeguard life on Earth, warns a landmark new report by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).

The IPBES Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity – also known as the Transformative Change Report – builds on the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment Report, which found that the only way to achieve global development goals is through transformative change, and on the 2022 IPBES Values Assessment Report.

Prepared over three years by more than 100 leading experts from 42 countries from all regions of the world, the report explains what transformative change is, how it occurs, and how to accelerate it for a just and sustainable world.

“Transformative change for a just and sustainable world is urgent because there is a closing window of opportunity to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and to prevent triggering the potentially irreversible decline and the projected collapse of key ecosystem functions,” said Prof. Karen O’Brien (Norway/USA), co-chair of the assessment with Prof. Arun Agrawal (India & USA) and Prof. Lucas Garibaldi (Argentina). “Under current trends, there is a serious risk of crossing several irreversible biophysical tipping points including die-off of low altitude coral reefs, die back of the Amazon rainforest, and loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. Transformative change is also necessary because most previous and current approaches to conservation, which aim to reform rather than transform systems, have failed to halt or reverse the decline of nature around the world, which has serious repercussions for the global economy and human well-being.”

The cost of delaying actions to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and nature’s decline around the world by even a decade is estimated to be double that of acting now. Acting immediately can also unlock massive business and innovation opportunities through sustainable economic approaches, such as nature-positive economy, ecological economy and Mother-Earth centric economy. Recent estimates are that more than $10 trillion in business opportunity value could be generated and 395 million jobs could be supported globally by 2030.

Approved on Monday in Windhoek, Namibia by the IPBES Plenary, composed of the 147 Governments that are members of IPBES, the report defines transformative change as fundamental system-wide shifts in views – ways of thinking, knowing and seeing; structures – ways of organizing, regulating and governing; and practices – ways of doing, behaving and relating. Current dominant configurations of views, structures and practices perpetuate and reinforce the underlying causes of biodiversity loss and nature’s decline. Transforming them is central to delivering on the global commitments for a just and sustainable world.

“Promoting and accelerating transformative change is essential to meeting the 23 action-oriented targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030 and four goals of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030 and for achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity, which describes a world where all life can thrive,” said Prof. Agrawal. “Transformative change is rarely the outcome of a single event, driver, or actor. It is better understood as changes that each of us can create, and multiple cascading shifts that trigger and reinforce one another, often in unexpected ways.”

The underlying causes of biodiversity loss identified by the report are the disconnection of people from nature and domination over nature and other people; the inequitable concentration of power and wealth; and the prioritization of short-term individual and material gains.

“As complex and challenging as it is to address these underlying causes of biodiversity loss, it is possible,” said Prof. Garibaldi. “History has shown us that societies can transform at immense scale – as they did during the Industrial Revolution. While that era wrought terrible environmental and human costs, it stands as proof that fundamental, system-wide change is achievable, although it occurred over a much longer period of time than is needed for current transformative change for a just and sustainable world. To meet our shared global development goals today means we need to embark on a new transformation – one that urgently conserves and restores our planet’s biodiversity rather than depleting it, while enabling everyone to prosper.”

The authors created and analyzed a database of hundreds of separate case studies of initiatives around the world with transformative potential. Their analysis shows that positive outcomes for diverse economic and environmental indicators can happen in a decade or less. The analysis also demonstrates that initiatives addressing greater numbers of indirect drivers of biodiversity loss and nature’s decline, and those in which diverse actors work together, lead to more positive outcomes for societies, economies and nature.

Principles and Obstacles

The report identifies four principles to guide deliberate transformative change: equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action.

Speaking about the obstacles that prevent transformative change and reinforce the status quo, Prof. O’Brien said: “The impacts of actions and resources devoted to blocking transformative change, for example through lobbying by vested interest groups or corruption, currently overshadow those devoted to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity”.

The report also identifies five overarching challenges to transformative change: relations of domination over nature and people, especially those that emerged and were propagated in colonial eras and that persist over time; economic and political inequalities; inadequate policies and unfit institutions; unsustainable consumption and production patterns including individual habits and practices; as well as limited access to clean technologies and uncoordinated knowledge and innovation systems.

“The underlying causes of biodiversity loss and nature’s decline also create inequalities and injustices,” said Prof. Agrawal. “Those who have benefited most from the economic activities associated with damage to nature – in particular, wealthy actors – have more opportunities and resources to create change. Doing so while involving others in balanced decision-making processes can unleash agency as well as resources to create change.”

5 Strategies

Embracing insights and evidence from diverse knowledge systems, disciplines and approaches, the Transformative Change Report highlights five key strategies and associated actions that have complementary and synergistic effects, and which countries and people can pursue to advance deliberate transformative change for global sustainability:

1. Conserve, restore and regenerate places of value to people and nature that exemplify biocultural diversity: This includes a focus on places of biocultural diversity – where place- based actions, such as restoration activities, can also support cultural values, sustainable production and biodiversity. An example is the Community Forestry Programme in Nepal – integrating decentralized forest policy into local community needs, views and practices to restore and manage degraded forests. 
2. Drive systematic change and mainstreaming biodiversity in the sectors most responsible for nature’s decline: The agriculture and livestock, fisheries, forestry, infrastructure and urban development, mining and fossil fuel sectors contribute heavily to the worst outcomes for Transformative approaches such as multifunctional and regenerative land use can promote a variety of benefits for nature and people. “Studies have suggested that increasing biodiversity, protecting natural habitats and reducing external inputs in agricultural landscapes can enhance crop productivity, for instance by enhancing pollinator abundance and diversity,” said Prof. Garibaldi. 
3. Transform economic systems for nature and equity: Global public explicit subsidies to sectors driving nature’s decline ranged from $1.4 trillion to $3.3 trillion per year in 2022 and total public funding for environmentally harmful subsidies has increased by 55% since 2021. It is estimated that between $722 billion and $967 billion per year is needed to sustainably manage biodiversity and maintain ecosystem integrity Currently, $135 billion per year is spent on biodiversity conservation, leaving a biodiversity funding gap of $598-824 billion per year. Some of the actions that could be taken to advance the necessary transformations include: internalizing environmental costs and using true cost accounting, reforming subsidies in sectors that contribute to biodiversity loss and nature’s decline, reconsidering global debts, greater positive private sector engagement, establishing sustainability as a core tax principle, and redefining goals, metrics and indicators to acknowledge social (including cultural), economic and environmental dimensions, as well as the different values of nature. 
4. Transform governance systems to be inclusive, accountable and adaptive: Integrating biodiversity into sector policies and decision-making, engaging a greater diversity of actors and holding actors accountable are important elements in transforming governance systems for more just and sustainable outcomes for people and nature. An example of this kind of approach to governance is the ecosystems-based spatial management of the Galapagos Marine Reserve, which supports sustainable fisheries and tourism – vital for more than 30,000 residents and 300,000 annual visitors.

5. Shift views and values to recognize human-nature interconnectedness: Many human behaviours are habitual, learned within social and environmental conditions – and they can be changed. Enhancing the visibility of desired behaviours and supporting these with targeted policy measures can catalyze and sustain new social norms and behaviours. Cultivating feelings of nature-connectedness is also important, as is transformative learning and education, experiential nature-based activities and knowledge co-creation by combining different knowledge systems including Indigenous and local knowledge.

Visions of Transformative Change

Visions are fundamentally important to inspire transformative change. The authors assessed more than 850 separate visions of a sustainable world for nature and people. They find that visions of a better future for humans and nature are abundant, but most do not change the status quo.

“The diversity of societies, economies, cultures and peoples means that no single theory or approach provides a complete understanding of transformative change or how to achieve it,” said Prof. O’Brien. “Many knowledge systems, including Indigenous and local knowledge, provide complementary insights into how it occurs and how to promote, accelerate and navigate the change needed for a just and sustainable world.”

Indigenous and local knowledge systems offer philosophies, ethics of care and reciprocity, values, and practices to shape approaches to transformative change. These include the use of ancestral, embodied and experiential knowledge and non-human ways of knowing and making sense of the world in decision making for conservation. Visions where Indigenous Peoples and local communities play a meaningful role are found to have a greater likelihood of advancing transformative change. Visions for living in harmony with nature are more likely to succeed when they emerge from inclusive, rights-based approaches and stakeholder processes and when they incorporate collaboration for change across sectors.

Roles for All

A key message from the report is that there is a role for every person and organization to create transformative change at multiple levels, but that coalitions of actors and actor groups are more effective in pursuing transformative change than change pursued individually. Such coalitions include individual citizens, Indigenous Peoples and local communities, civil society organizations, non-governmental organizations, trade unions, funders, faith-based organizations, governments at all levels, the private sector, financial institutions and the scientific community.

Governments across all levels are found to be key in engaging diverse coalitions of State and non- State actors. Governments are powerful enablers of transformative change when they foster policy coherence, enact and enforce stronger regulations to benefit nature and nature’s contributions to people in policies and plans across different sectors, deploy innovative economic and fiscal tools, phase out or reform environmentally harmful subsidies and promote international cooperation. The report finds that current government actions for transformative change are undermined by a mismatch between the scale of biodiversity challenges and the jurisdiction of separate, siloed institutions or the length of time for policy implementation compared to the length of time between elections that can bring new political authorities to power that oppose such policies.

Civil society plays important and effective roles in bringing about transformative change by mobilizing citizens, creating initiatives that propagate change and by holding governments and the private sector accountable for harmful environmental practices. The report finds that a way to support transformative change is by supporting and amplifying civil society initiatives for a just and sustainable world and protecting environmental defenders from violence and violations of rights.

“We thank the co-chairs and all the authors of the Transformative Change Report for making it clear that there is path to a more just and sustainable world,” said Dr. Anne Larigauderie, Executive Secretary of IPBES. “Acting decisively now to shift views, structures and practices to address the underlying causes of biodiversity loss will be tremendously challenging but is urgent, necessary and possible.”

* * * * *

By the Numbers – Key Statistics from the Report

• >50%: Proportion of annual global GDP generated by economic activities moderately to highly dependent on nature, amounting to $58 trillion
• $13 trillion: Annual value of industries highly dependent on nature, accounting for 15% of global GDP
• $31 trillion: Annual value of industries moderately dependent on nature, representing 37% of global GDP
• $10 trillion: Estimated business opportunity value that could be generated while supporting 395 million jobs globally by 2030
• 55%: Increase in public funding of environmentally harmful subsidies since 2021
• $10.7 trillion: Estimated annual external costs of sectors most responsible for nature’s decline
• <15%: Global proportion of forests certified as sustainably managed
• 46,955: Documented environmental threats contested by civil society analyzed by authors
• ~40%: Proportion of protected areas and intact ecosystems across 87 countries managed by or with tenure rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities
• 2%: Proportion of global wealth held by top 1% of global population in 2021, with 1.85% owned by the bottom 50%

Media coverage highlights:

A Biodiversity Solution Might Be Hiding in Plain Sight — The New York Times (United States, 184,546,007)

Major Report Joins Dots Between World’s Nature Challenges — BBC (United Kingdom, 162,425,058)

‘Fundamental Change’ to Nature-Harming Industries Needed, UN Report Warns — UK Press Association via MSN.com (United States, 127,645,172)

IPBES Warns of a Decline in Biodiversity of Between 2% and 6% Per Decade in the Last 50 Years — EFE via Infobae (Argentina, 95,236,694)

Biodiversity Hit to Economic Estimated at Up to $25tn a Year in Landmark Report — Financial Times (United Kingdom, 16,362,693)

Scientists Call for Urgent Transformative Change to Save Biodiversity on Earth — Infobae (Argentina, 95,236,694)

The Nature Crisis Puts More Than 50% of the World’s GDP at Risk — ABC (Spain, 14,634,135)

Activities That Damage the Natural World Receive 35 Times More Resources Than Their Protection — La Vanguardia (Spain, 22,228,512)

Unified Approach Could Improve Nature, Climate and Health All at Once — New Scientist via MSN.com (United States, 127,645,172)

Full coverage summary: here

News releases in full:

Nexus: here

Transformative Change: here