50% More Wildfires Foreseen By 2100; Governments Are Not Prepared: UN

UN Environment Programme

Even the Arctic, previously all but immune, faces rising wildfire risk; Wildfires and climate change are “mutually exacerbating”; Governments are called to radically shift their investments to focus on prevention and preparedness

Climate change and land-use change are projected to make wildfires more frequent and intense, with a global increase of extreme fires of up to 14 per cent by 2030, 30 per cent by the end of 2050 and 50 per cent by the end of the century, according to a new report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and GRID-Arendal.

The paper calls for a radical change in government spending on wildfires, shifting their investments from reaction and response to prevention and preparedness.

The report, Spreading like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires, finds an elevated risk even for the Arctic and other regions previously unaffected by wildfires. The report is released before representatives of 193 nations convene in Nairobi for the resumed 5^th session of the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-5.2), between 28 February and 2 March, 2022.

The publication calls on governments to adopt a new ‘Fire Ready Formula,’ with two-thirds of spending devoted to planning, prevention, preparedness, and recovery, with one third left for response. Currently, direct responses to wildfires typically receive over half of related expenditures, while planning and prevention receive less than one per cent.

To prevent fires, authors call for a combination of data and science-based monitoring systems with indigenous knowledge and for a stronger regional and international cooperation.

Current government responses to wildfires are often putting money in the wrong place. Those emergency service workers and firefighters on the frontlines who are risking their lives to fight forest wildfires need to be supported. We have to minimize the risk of extreme wildfires by being better prepared: invest more in fire risk reduction, work with local communities, and strengthen global commitment to fight climate change” said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director.

Wildfires disproportionately affect the world’s poorest nations. With an impact that extends for days, weeks and even years after the flames subside, they impede progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals and deepen social inequalities:

People’s health is directly affected by inhaling wildfire smoke, causing respiratory and cardiovascular impacts and increased health effects for the most vulnerable;
The economic costs of rebuilding after areas are struck by wildfires can be beyond the means of low-income countries;

Watersheds are degraded by wildfires’ pollutants; they also can lead to soil erosion causing more problems for waterways;
Wastes left behind are often highly contaminated and require appropriate disposal.

Wildfires and climate change are mutually exacerbating. Wildfires are made worse by climate change through increased drought, high air temperatures, low relative humidity, lightning, and strong winds resulting in hotter, drier, and longer fire seasons. At the same time, climate change is made worse by wildfires, mostly by ravaging sensitive and carbon-rich ecosystems like peatlands and rainforests. This turns landscapes into tinderboxes, making it harder to halt rising temperatures.

Wildlife and its natural habitats are rarely spared from wildfires, pushing some animal and plant species closer to extinction. A recent example is the Australian 2020 bushfires, which are estimated to have wiped out billions of domesticated and wild animals.

There is a critical need to better understand the behaviour of wildfires. Achieving and sustaining adaptive land and fire management requires a combination of policies, a legal framework and incentives that encourage appropriate land and fire use.

The restoration of ecosystems is an important avenue to mitigate the risk of wildfires before they occur and to build back better in their aftermath. Wetlands restoration and the reintroduction of species such as beavers, peatlands restoration, building at a distance from vegetation and preserving open space buffers are some examples of the essential investments into prevention, preparedness and recovery.

The report concludes with a call for stronger international standards for the safety and health of firefighters and for minimising the risks that they face before, during and after operations. This includes raising awareness of the risks of smoke inhalation, minimising the potential for life-threatening entrapments, and providing firefighters with access to adequate hydration, nutrition, rest, and recovery between shifts.

The report was commissioned in support of UNREDD and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. UNEP will be exploring how further investments can be made to reduce fire risks in critical ecosystems around the world.

The full report is available post-embargo here: https://bit.ly/3p7UiP0

Coverage highlights:

Associated Press, United States: UN: Wildfires getting worse globally, governments unprepared
Spanish

Agence France Presse, France
World must brace for more extreme wildfires: UN
French
Spanish
Portuguese
German

Reuters, United Kingdom
1) Extreme wildfires are here to stay – and multiply
2) EXPLAINER: ‘Catastrophic’ wildfire risk is growing. Here’s how to cut it

Press Association, United Kingdom: Wildfires getting worse worldwide, with governments unprepared – UN report

Agencia EFE, Spain: Naciones Unidas advierte que el número de incendios forestales aumentará en un 50 % para el 2100

LUSA, Portugal: Peritos da ONU alertam para aumento da intensidade e frequência dos incêndios

Anadolu Agency, Turkey: UN: Šumski požari se pogoršavaju, svijet nepripremljen

Xinhua / 新华网, Mainland China: UNEP calls for investments to mitigate wildfires amid threat

AAP Australia: Extreme wildfires here to stay

News sites

United States

Washington Post
1) Risk of uncontrollable wildfires will rise and spread globally, United Nations warns
2) Editorial: Opinion: The extreme wildfires raging around the world could become a lot worse

New York Times: Climate Change Could Increase Risk of Wildfires 50% by Century’s End

Wall Street Journal: Wildfires Will Become More Intense and Frequent, U.N. Study Finds

The Hill: Wildfire incidence to increase by 50 percent by 2100: UN study

CNN International: Wildfires are getting more extreme and burning more land. The UN says it’s time to ‘learn to live with fire’

Bloomberg: Extreme Wildfire Impacts to Rise Dramatically by 2100, UN Says

Los Angeles Times: Wildfires are getting worse across the globe. How does California compare?

The Verge: Firefighting strategies need an extreme makeover, UN warns

Forbes:
1) Climate Change Could Drive Wildfire Risk Up 50% By End Of Century, UN Warns
2) Wildfires Could Increase 50% This Century. Here’s What To Do About It

BBC United Kingdom: Global warming and land use change to drive more extreme wildfires

The Guardian United Kingdom: Wildfires likely to increase by a third by 2050, warns UN

The Independent, United Kingdom: Global warming ‘turning landscapes into tinderboxes,’ UN wildfires report warns

El Confidencial, Spain: El número de incendios aumentará un 50% de aquí a 2100 y los Gobiernos no están preparados

stern, Germany: UN-Bericht Extreme Waldbrände werden in kommenden Jahren drastisch zunehmen

Der Spiegel, Germany: KatastrophenExperten warnen vor extremem Anstieg von Waldbränden

FAZ, Germany: Schwere Wald- und Buschbrände sollen massiv zunehmen

CGTN, Mainland China: Wildfires to increase by 50% by 2100: UN Environment Programme report

Naver, Korea: UN 기후변화로 2050년엔 산불 30% 증가한다

Tribunnews, Indonesia:
1) PBB: Dunia Bersiap Hadapi Kebakaran Hutan yang Lebih Ekstrem
2) PBB: Jumlah Kasus Kebakaran Hutan di Dunia akan Meningkat karena Pemanasan Global

Sydney Morning Herald, Australia: Longer fire seasons, warmer nights predicted as firefighters reach technological limits

NRK Norway: Varsler 30 til 50 prosent flere katastrofebranner i fremtiden

Sciences et Avenir, France: Le monde n’est pas prêt à affronter les méga-feux appelés à augmenter

Television

Newspapers in print

USA
New York Times, United States, Pages 1, 5
Wall Street Journal, United States, Page 9
Washington Post United States Page 16
New York Daily News United States Page 13
Baltimore Sun United States Page: 7
Philadelphia Inquirer United States Page 9
Chicago Tribune United States Page 18
Los Angeles Times United States Page 2
San Francisco Chronicle United States Page 2
Dallas Morning News United States Page 3

The Guardian United Kingdom Page: 27
Deutsche Welle, Germany Page 33
Millennium Post, India Page: 8
Hindustan Times (Delhi) India Page: 4
The Straits Times Singapore Page: 19
Manila Standard Philippines Page: 6
ABC Spain Page: 37
The Irish Times Ireland Page 1
Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review Turkey Page: 1
El Heraldo (Colombia), Page: 1

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50% more wildfires foreseen by 2100; Governments are not prepared: UN

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